Brewers' dominance is a reality check for Cubs' World Series ambitions

The Chicago Cubs held the top spot in the NL Central for nearly five months. Having sent a prized haul to the Houston Astros for one year of Kyle Tucker, Chicago became a win-now team with the imperative task of reaching the World Series.

It seemed the Cubs were well on their way to achieving their lofty aspirations; however, on July 28, they walked into a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers, both tied for first place. In a battle for the lead, the Brewers prevailed, taking two of three. Since then, the Cubs’ competitiveness has evaporated.

After cruising to their 12^th consecutive win on Wednesday, the Brewers hold an eight-game lead over their once-fierce division rival. The top spot in the NL Central now appears out of Chicago’s reach. Nonetheless, with a 3.5-game lead in the wild-card race, the Cubs still have a viable route to the postseason. But the overarching question isn’t about whether the Cubs can make it to the postseason, but whether they can topple the Brewers when they get there.

Regardless of their 1-2 series loss to the Brewers, the Cubs have been on a downward spiral. Since the trade deadline (and just after their bout with the Brewers), the Cubs have lost six of their last 10 games. Both Tucker and fellow All-Star Pete Crow-Armstrong have been slumping heavily at the plate, weighing on the Cubs’ potent offense. And making their future even more gloomy is that they did not pick up a starter at the trade deadline, instead opting to rely on Javier Assad upon his return from the IL (four earned runs in four innings against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday, his season debut).

The Brewers, on the other hand, recently came off a 10-game win streak and have now embarked on a 12-game (and counting) win streak. Their pitching staff owns the third-best ERA in the game at 3.59, and this comes with only a marginal contribution from rookie fireballer Jacob Misiorowski, who owns a 2.70 ERA in seven starts (33.1 innings). Misiorowski made his debut on June 12 and fell on the IL (left tibia contusion) after boosting Milwaukee over the Cubs on July 28.

The Brewers offense, while not astounding, has compiled the second-highest cumulative batting average and on-base percentage in MLB (.259, 332). Their power numbers are far from impressive, but it’s worth mentioning that they scored 103 runs over their 12-game win streak. This includes tagging Paul Skenes for four earned runs in four innings for the second time this year.

Right now, the Brewers are looking invincible. If they can maintain this momentum into the postseason, or at least perform similarly, the World Series is theirs to lose.

If the Cubs have one thing on their side, it’s history. The Brewers have won the division three times in the past four years without claiming a single postseason series victory. Milwaukee made it to the postseason in five of the last six years, but never advanced past its opening round. The last time the Brewers won a postseason series was in 2018, sweeping the Colorado Rockies in the NLDS. The Brewers' awful postseason luck aside, should the two teams face off in October, the Cubs will need to play much better than they are now if they are going to win.