Paul Skenes' recent struggles open door for Phillies aces in NL Cy Young race

Unlike the American League Cy Young race, which is quickly looking like Tarik Skubal's to lose, the National League Cy Young race has started to heat up in recent weeks.

Paul Skenes has been sensational in what has otherwise been another miserable season for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Although the Bucs sit in a distant last place in the NL Central with a 51-70 record, they've been a must-watch whenever their ace is on the mound, and it's easy to see why.

Through his first 22 starts of the season, the former LSU star boasted a 1.83 ERA, rarely giving up more than one run an outing. Had Skenes managed to maintain this number, he would've had the lowest ERA of any qualified starter since Justin Verlander's 1.74 ERA in 2022 with the Houston Astros, easily capturing his first Cy Young without much contest. However, a pair of recent underwhelming performances from the All-Star right-hander have suddenly cast doubt on his status as the favorite.

While Skenes did sandwich an outing featuring six shutout innings between his two duds, the 23-year-old hurt his Cy Young odds after allowing four runs to the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers, respectively. As a result, his ERA rose to 2.13, a minuscule, but non-historical number. 

To Skenes' credit, these weren't necessarily the easiest situations to perform in. The Rockies play in the MLB's most hitter-friendly park, Coors Field, and can manufacture runs at times on their home field. Meanwhile, the Brewers remain the hottest team in baseball after knocking off Skenes for their 11th-straight victory on Tuesday. But a Cy Young favorite needs to find a way to succeed, even in uncomfortable spots.

While these two subpar showings won't necessarily make or break Skenes' Cy Young case, they certainly won't help, especially with a pair of Philadelphia Phillies aces breathing down his neck.

Both Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez are heavily in the mix for different reasons. Wheeler, a two-time Cy Young runner-up, has always been a threat for the award since joining the Phillies in December 2019, thanks to his durability and incredible strikeout numbers. 

That said, the 35-year-old has allowed 15 runs in his last 28.1 innings, hurting his ERA in the process. But what Wheeler has over Skenes and the rest of the competition is his NL-leading WHIP (0.926) and strikeouts (189). Currently, Wheeler has 20 more Ks than the next leader, San Diego Padres' Dylan Cease.

Sanchez is easily the most unexpected name in the race, but after two seasons of above-average pitching, he has officially broken out. The southpaw trails both Skenes (166) and Wheeler in strikeouts; Sanchez's 151 are nothing to balk at. For him to win the award, though, voters will have to look at his entire body of work. 

The 28-year-old currently leads the NL in bWAR (6.0) thanks to his well-rounded contributions. Sporting an impressive 2.36 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, it's hard to say who's been the better Phillies starter this season. If Sanchez continues to consistently mow down lineups as he has over the last two months, he could become one of the more surprising Cy Young winners in recent memory. 

For now, Skenes' season-long heroics still have him positioned as the favorite to claim the prestigious accolade. With the way both Wheeler and Sanchez have dealt all year, though, it won't take many more bumps ahead for Skenes' odds to plummet.