Riskiest picks in first three rounds of fantasy football drafts

While gems can be found anywhere throughout fantasy football drafts, the first three rounds set the foundation for the rest of your team. The opening rounds possess not only the NFL's top talents, but also the picks you absolutely can't  mess up.

Maybe a late-draft steal can help shore up some of the problem, but if more than one pick in the first three rounds turns out to be a dud, it'll be an uphill battle to make the fantasy playoffs, never mind win it all.

There is an array of strategies to utilize early in drafts. Prioritizing either star wide receivers or workhorse running backs from the jump is a go-to for most players. The key, though, is selecting the right receivers and backs, especially when considering their ADP. 

No player being taken in the first three rounds of drafts is expected to have a down season, and most likely won't. But there will be high-end players, even All-Pro talents, who won't sniff the value most are expecting from them.

Here are the riskiest targets in each of the first three rounds of fantasy football drafts this season.

Round 1: Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

It's hard not to salivate when looking at Barkley's 2024 numbers. With over 2,000 rushing yards and 13 scores, the Super Bowl champion just wrapped up easily the best season of his career.

A concerning trend, though? Since 2019, Barkley has failed to post back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. While I'm certainly not predicting another injury-riddled campaign, it's difficult to see Barkley putting together another superhuman, fully healthy season.

Also, championship fatigue is a real thing, and it could very well affect Barkley and an Eagles team that just achieved its ultimate goal last season. Unless he's available in Round 2, avoid Barkley this year.

Round 2: Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

After finishing his tenure in Tennessee with a down season (relatively speaking), many questioned how much more Derrick Henry had in the tank once he joined the Baltimore Ravens. 

The All-Pro back proceeded to respond to his doubters with the second-best season of his career, posting 1,921 rushing yards and a league-leading 16 TDs en route to his fifth Pro Bowl selection.

While there's not much that can slow Henry down other than age and injury, I'm betting this to be the season Father Time begins to make his mark on the former Alabama star.

Never one to be heavily involved in the passing game, Henry's high draft status is thanks to his unmatched rushing prowess and scoring ability. I don't see him replicating his impressive 2024 numbers, though, which has prompted me to stay away from him, especially in PPR leagues.

Round 3: James Cook, Buffalo Bills

After scoring four total touchdowns throughout his first two seasons, Cook exploded for 16 in 2024. He may be the most obvious candidate for touchdown regression in the entire league.

Cook may have just signed a shiny new deal with the Bills, but that doesn't mean that the running back job is completely his. 2024 fourth-rounder Ray Davis had over 100 attempts as a rookie, and his role should only continue to grow.

Cook does bring plenty of value in the passing game. But with his role still being somewhat unclear and a scoring dip virtually guaranteed, it's hard to justify the Pro Bowler's current draft position.