Napheesa Collier Must Fend Off A'ja Wilson in Tight WNBA MVP Race

The star forward hasn't seen the floor since Aug. 2, missing seven consecutive games with a right-ankle sprain. When she does return, she'll find that the complexion of the MVP race shifted dramatically.

Collier quickly became the MVP favorite, making WNBA history as the first player to score 250 points on 50/40/90 shooting splits through the first 10 games of the season.

With Minnesota effortlessly pacing the league, the 28-year-old seemed like a lock to take home her first MVP trophy. It's far from a lock now.

Between A'ja Wilson's relentless scoring pace, sending the Las Vegas Aces soaring up the standings in the process, and Alyssa Thomas setting new records with each triple-double, this MVP race is coming down to the wire.

Here's why each has a legitimate path to taking home the hardware (stats entering Sunday).

Napheesa Collier — 26 GP, 23.5 PPG, 7.5 REB, 53.7 FG%, 1.8 STL

It's no mistake that Collier has been the clear-cut favorite for most of the season.

The WNBA's leading scorer at 23.5 PPG, Collier boasts a ridiculously well-rounded stat line, challenging Wilson as the best two-way player in the game. On top of her league-leading scoring pace, Collier ranks second in steals, fourth in blocks, seventh in FG% and ninth in rebounding.

What sets Collier apart from Wilson and Thomas is her ability to be an elite three-level scorer. The 6-foot-1 forward has the touch and footwork to get hers in the paint, but she's also shooting 36.7% from distance while averaging nearly four three-pointers a game.

Barring a sudden dip in production post-injury, the biggest knock on Collier will be the 10 games she's missed with injuries. Despite Collier's return on Sunday and if she played the rest of the season, she'd only reach a total of 34 games.

With Wilson on pace for 40 games, Collier may have to definitively outplay the Las Vegas center to win over some voters. That said, she'll still clear all the awards qualifiers and has been unequivocally dominant when she is on the court. And while it is an individual award, being the star player on a Minnesota team that could set a new WNBA single-season wins record is most definitely of note.

It would take an inspired three-point barrage for Collier to finish the season with 50/40/90 splits, but I'll leave you with this nugget to contextualize her season.

Only three players in WNBA history have averaged 20 points while shooting at least 50% from the field and 35% from three on at least one attempt. Collier is on track to become the fourth. The others — Sheryl Swoopes (2000), Lauren Jackson (2007) and Breanna Stewart (2018) — each took home the MVP trophy that season.

A'ja Wilson — 34 GP, 23.2 PPG, 10.2 REB, 2.2 BLK, 49.4 FG%

To say that Collier's injury opened the door for Wilson is disingenuous. The 7-time All-Star was already firmly entrenched in the MVP race on Aug. 2 when the Lynx star went down. Granted, Collier's absence only helps her case, but with Wilson's scorching second-half, this was going to be a conversation, injury or not.

You can make a powerful argument that Wilson has been the best player in the league for the last two months. Saturday's win over the Washington Mystics makes it 18 straight games with double figures. In that stretch, she's reached the 30-point mark eight times and leads the WNBA with 25.3 points and 11.4 rebounds.

Plus, she's got an excellent rebuttal for anyone who plays the team success card with Collier. On July 10, Las Vegas sat at 9-11 and out of a playoff spot. Then Wilson's double-figures streak began. Since that point, the Aces are 15-3 and currently riding a 10-game winning streak. If the season ended before Sunday's results, Las Vegas wouldn't just be a playoff team — they'd be the No. 3 seed.

If averaging a double-double wasn't enough, Wilson became the first player to record 30 points and 20 rebounds in a single game, doing so on August 10 against the Connecticut Sun. She's also the first player in WNBA history to have multiple seasons with 10-plus 30-point games.

On the defensive end, she's sharp as ever, pacing the WNBA with 2.2 blocks and 3.76 stocks (steals plus blocks).

Only one player in WNBA history has ever averaged at least 20.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 steals in a single season. It was Wilson in 2024, and she took home her third MVP trophy.

Alyssa Thomas — 31 GP, 16.0 PPG, 9.2 AST, 8.8 REB, 53.9 FG%

Thomas is the dark horse candidate in this three-headed race, through little fault of her own. She's simply up against two superstars who are putting together historic seasons.

Her scoring doesn't quite match that of Collier and Wilson, but Thomas is making history in her own right and deserves real consideration.

There have been 12 triple-doubles in the WNBA this season. Thomas has half of them. She's got five triple-doubles in the month of August alone. There isn't another player in league history that's tallied five triple-doubles in their entire career, playoffs included.

Thomas will take home the league's assist title this season and is just 54 away from setting a new single-season assist record, set by Caitlin Clark last season.

She may not watch Wilson in dominance or Collier in three-level scoring, but Thomas is nonetheless having an unparalleled season. The game's top playmaker this season deserves some respect in that regard.

Verdict

Thomas has a better case than some are giving her credit for, but this MVP race ultimately comes down to Wilson and Collier.

It feels as if the two counter each other perfectly. Both are magnificent two-way stars. Collier has led the Lynx to the league's best record, but Wilson has rallied the Aces in the biggest comeback story of the season. Collier has maintained the scoring title for most of the season, yet it's Wilson who has arguably been more dominant. Collier's three-point shooting gives her an extra wrinkle over Wilson, but the three-time MVP likely finishes the season leading the WNBA in rebounding and blocks.

If the season ended today, Collier has my vote. She's been an elite, well-rounded scorer with remarkable efficiency, both inside the paint and beyond the arc. Combine that with terrific defense, and she's got a legitimate claim to being the game's best all-around player.

That said, I won't disagree with anyone who favors Wilson. With her elite rim protection, she's the favorite to take home her third Defensive Player of the Year Award. She's also only 0.3 points shy of surpassing Collier for the WNBA scoring title — and if she does, I'd venture it vaults Wilson into position as the favorite.

Given how well Wilson has played down the stretch, Collier can't afford to miss a beat post-injury. It's going to take elite production to keep the Las Vegas center away from her fourth MVP trophy.