Predicting which NFL teams will make in-season QB changes and when

The New Orleans Saints announced their Week 1 starter on Tuesday, revealing that second-year quarterback Spencer Rattler had beaten out rookie Tyler Shough for the role leading the first-team offense.

While it's currently settled, we'd be surprised if we didn't see Shough start at some point this season.

The Saints aren't the only team that could change quarterbacks at some point this season. Below, we peer into our crystal ball and predict when New Orleans — and four other teams — will make a move.

Week 5 

New Orleans Saints | After an 0-4 start, calls to start Shough will be too loud for Moore to ignore. The Saints open with three consecutive games against the NFC West (Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks) and a road trip to five-time AFC East champion Buffalo Bills, giving them a realistic chance of entering October winless.

Rattler and Shough put up similar preseason numbers, and with the season potentially going sideways early, a Week 5 home game against the New York Giants, another team projected to be among the league's worst, could be the perfect time to make a switch.

New York Giants | Speaking of the Giants, they have their own quarterback debate after moving up to select quarterback Jaxson Dart at No. 25 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. He's currently Russell Wilson's backup, but after a promising preseason, he may have shortened his time in that role.

New York also has a difficult opening schedule with division games against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys in Weeks 1 and 2, followed by home games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. The Saints will be one of its easiest games all season, making it the perfect time for Dart to make his first start. 

Week 6

Indianapolis Colts | The Colts are really going through with this, huh? Maybe Daniel Jones will surprise us and be 2025's Sam Darnold, but we're not counting on it.

Steichen will want to give Jones as much time as possible to prove him right, but at a certain point, the third-year head coach will need to make a change to salvage the locker room. One complication would be if Indianapolis trades Anthony Richardson, although that's inadvisable with one of the league's shakiest starter situations. 

Week 14

Cleveland Browns | To Joe Flacco's credit, he's hung around much longer than anyone predicted after the Baltimore Ravens replaced him with Lamar Jackson in 2018. But after a successful first stint in Cleveland, culminating in a 2023 Associated Press Comeback Player of the Year Award, we don't anticipate things to go as well for the 18-year NFL veteran this time around.

Flacco should bring a level of competency missing at quarterback last season when the Browns finished 3-14. But while they might be more competitive, there's still a decent chance they're out of the playoff picture by the beginning of December. If so, Dillon Gabriel, a 2025 third-rounder, should get the call for his first start against the Tennessee Titans, setting up a showdown with fellow rookie quarterback Cam Ward.

Week 15

Seattle Seahawks | This one would be the biggest shock. Darnold had a career-best season last year and was rewarded for it by signing a three-year, $100.5M free-agent contract with the Seahawks.

However, the Seahawks selected quarterback Jalen Milroe in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, raising some uncertainty about how long Darnold will be in Seattle's plans. It also doesn't help that the Seahawks have a suspect offensive line, and Darnold has struggled against pressure through his career. 

His job won't be in jeopardy as long as he's winning games, but a late-season slide will leave Milroe (or current QB2 Drew Lock) as the starter over the last four games.