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Why Osaka's comeback tour may not end with upset of Gauff
Naomi Osaka (JPN) after beating Coco Gauff (USA) (not pictured) on day nine of the 2025 U.S. Open tennis tournament at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

Why Naomi Osaka's comeback tour may not end with upset of Coco Gauff

With Naomi Osaka looking like her old self, perhaps she could win her first Grand Slam in over four years.

Entering the 2025 U.S. Open, that didn't seem likely for No. 23 seed Osaka, who has missed time for mental health breaks and childbirth during this timeframe. 

The former No. 1 player in the world hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2021 Australian Open. Additionally, the 2025 U.S. Open marks the first time Osaka has been seeded at a Grand Slam since the 2022 Australian Open.

After upsetting No. 3 seed Coco Gauff in the Round of 16 at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Monday, Osaka winning the major now seems much more possible. The past four times the 27-year-old advanced to a Grand Slam quarterfinal, she went on to win the final.

Osaka didn't just get lucky against Gauff, either. The Japanese player outplayed the American throughout the match, winning 6-3, 6-2 in one hour and four minutes. 

Per the U.S. Open's website, Osaka won 15 of 16 first-serve points (94% to 52%) and 17 of 22 second-serve points (77% to 59%). She also hit 10 winners. 

Osaka has won 10 of her last 11 singles matches (including Monday's win). In a post-match interview, she explained watching Gauff win the 2023 U.S. Open has inspired her stellar play at Flushing Meadows.  

"I was in the stands two months after I gave birth to my daughter, watching Coco. I just really wanted an opportunity to come out here and play," she said. "This is my favorite court in the world, and it means so much for me to be back here."

Osaka will face No. 11 seed Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinal on Wednesday. If she wins that match, she'll likely have to beat No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka to win the tournament. 

That will be difficult for Osaka. With her rolling at her favorite court, however, it wouldn't be shocking if her comeback tour ends with a victory in the final.

Clark Dalton

Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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