Why it's unwise to consider Carlos Alcaraz the favorite against Novak Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz is the overwhelming betting favorite to defeat Novak Djokovic in Friday's U.S. Open semifinal. 

The odds are understandable. Alcaraz is 35-1 in his last 36 matches, with his sole loss coming against Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final. The Spaniard has been so consistent that he's ranked No. 1 in the Live ATP Rankings, racking up more wins in 2025 than even Sinner.

Djokovic has lost three consecutive major semifinals, one of which ended in a medical retirement, and lingering injury issues severely impacted the other two — both straight-set losses to Sinner. The 38-year-old can no longer be relied upon to last a five-set thriller against a player 16 years younger like Alcaraz. It's an unreasonable expectation.

All that said, surface matters. If this match were being held on grass or clay, Djokovic wouldn't stand a chance against the current version of Alcaraz. However, the Serbian can still hang with the best of them on his beloved hard courts, where he's won a record 14 major titles. As long as Djokovic's body holds up, he has a chance on a hard court, where there's no element of unpredictability — the bounce stays consistent and suits his mechanical playing style. 

Look no further than this year's Australian Open quarterfinal, where Djokovic defeated Alcaraz in four sets despite taking a medical timeout after losing the first set. The same injury forced him to retire in the ensuing semifinal, but he had just enough in the tank to beat Alcaraz, as he could bank on his familiarity with the surface.

It's also worth noting that Alcaraz has never beaten Djokovic on hard courts, with his only three wins coming on either grass or clay (2023 Wimbledon, 2024 Wimbledon and 2022 Madrid Masters). Djokovic's 5-3 career head-to-head advantage includes three wins on hard courts.

Yes, Alcaraz is the rightful favorite, but it would be unwise to dismiss Djokovic, who is running out of chances to secure his 25th major. The latter just needs his body to hold up — and if it does, watch out.