NFL QB tiers: Who can actually win a Super Bowl in 2025 season?

There are not many positions in professional sports more valuable and important than NFL starting quarterback. For better or worse, QBs determine the directions of franchises. 

If you have a great one, your team is always going to be in contention for a Super Bowl. If you do not, it really doesn't matter who else is on the roster because the team's ceiling will be limited.

A lot of teams think they have a Super Bowl-caliber QB, but only a handful do. Of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season, only nine have started a Super Bowl and only six have won one. Both lists include Pittsburgh's Aaron Rodgers, the New York Giants' Russell Wilson and Cleveland's Joe Flacco, each of whom is no longer a Super Bowl-caliber QB.

So let's break the league down into tiers of teams that know they have their franchise quarterbacks, teams that hope and think they do and teams that are stuck in either no-man's land or with no hope at all.

Do not think of this as a 1-32 ranking. Think of it as the level of confidence a team should have in whether or not its starter can win a Super Bowl this season. (* denotes has played in a Super Bowl | S* denotes has won at least one Super Bowl. Los Angeles Rams backup Jimmy Garoppolo has also started in a Super Bowl.)

Teams that know they have their guy (five)

• Kansas City Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes) S*
• Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Burrow) *
• Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen)
• Baltimore Ravens (Lamar Jackson)
• Philadelphia Eagles (Jalen Hurts) S*

Mahomes is climbing toward GOAT territory and Burrow is being wasted by an incompetent franchise. While Hurts is probably the worst of these five quarterbacks, he’s still very good, a perfect fit for Philadelphia's run-heavy style of play. He has proved he can play when the lights are the brightest. 

Jackson and Allen still have to get to a Super Bowl, and Jackson still must play better in big moments, but they are MVP-caliber players. These teams are set for the foreseeable future.

Teams that think they have their guy (eight)

• Washington Commanders (Jayden Daniels)
• Houston Texans (C.J. Stroud)
• Los Angeles Chargers (Justin Herbert)
• Green Bay Packers (Jordan Love)
• Detroit Lions (Jared Goff) *
• Los Angeles Rams (Matthew Stafford) S*
• Denver Broncos (Bo Nix)
• San Franciso 49ers (Brock Purdy) *

This tier of players features young stars who have played great early on but still need to prove themselves over time (Daniels, Stroud) and good players who need some sort of signature big moment (Love, Nix, Goff, Herbert, Purdy) to establish themselves. In some cases, the sample size is just too small. 

Stafford is an interesting case because when healthy, he should be in the top tier, but injuries (back injury this season) are mounting for him, so he's a wild card.

This year's Super Bowl champion is likely to come from one of these top two tiers.  

Teams that hope they have their guy (six)

• Chicago Bears (Caleb Williams)
• Carolina Panthers (Bryce Young)
• New England Patriots (Drake Maye)
• Tennessee Titans (Cam Ward)
• Minnesota Vikings (JJ McCarthy)
• Atlanta Falcons (Michael Penix Jr.)

This tier is full of recent top picks. They are all talented. They all have potential and big upside. They are all also largely unproven and have not yet established themselves. But for now, they are the face of their franchise. Their story is still being written. You can believe in them, but you can't be confident in what they are just yet. Some will succeed. One or two might win a Super Bowl. 

Teams stuck in no-man’s land (five)

• Dallas Cowboys (Dak Prescott)
• Miami Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence)
• Arizona Cardinals (Kyler Murray)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)

These are all competent starting quarterbacks. You could certainly do worse. You could also certainly do better, and that is the problem. This group is good, but it's probably not good enough to win it all, and all of them are locked into long-term deals in which there is no easy way to get out of them anytime soon. Mayfield's contract isn't too overbearing long term, but it has $61 million in dead money for 2026 if the Bucs wanted to move on after this season. 

Teams wandering in the darkness (eight)

• Pittsburgh Steelers (Aaron Rodgers) S*
• Indianapolis Colts (Daniel Jones)
• Seattle Seahawks (Sam Darnold)
• Las Vegas Raiders (Geno Smith)
• Cleveland Browns (Joe Flacco) S*
• New York Giants (Russell Wilson) S*
• New York Jets (Justin Fields)
• New Orleans Saints (Spencer Rattler)

Some of these guys might play well this season. Most will not. Either way, none of these players are long-term solutions and most of the teams are stuck in a revolving door of quarterback mediocrity with no long-term solutions on the horizon.