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The Big Five: NFL Week 1 surprises that probably won't hold up in Week 2 and beyond
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones sneaks for a Sunday against the Dolphins. Grace Hollars/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Big Five: NFL Week 1 surprises that probably won't hold up in Week 2 and beyond

Beware of reading too much into Week 1 in the NFL. It's easy to leap to conclusions, but first impressions aren't always accurate.

Here are five surprises from the first week of the regular season that probably won't repeat in Week 2 and beyond:

1. Dominant Indianapolis Colts

This time last year, the New Orleans Saints were riding high off a dominant 47-10 win over the Carolina Panthers and preparing for another blowout win in Week 2 against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Colts' 33-8 demolition of the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 felt like that win, too. Forgive us if we're not ready for a world in which Indianapolis' Daniel Jones is an elite quarterback.

The former New York Giants QB went 22-of-29 for 272 yards and a touchdown and added 26 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries. Jones was one of four quarterbacks in Week 1 to account for at least three touchdowns without a turnover, joining Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers) and Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers). 

It's difficult reconciling that performance with what Jones did in 2022 and 2023, when he went 3-13 as a starter for the Giants and threw for 10 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and averaged 186.2 passing yards per game. The Dolphins, who traded All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey this offseason and are already banged up in their defensive backfield, might have the league's worst secondary, helping explain Jones' performance and why it won't be easy to replicate.

In Week 2 Sunday, the Colts host the much more stout Denver Broncos, who held the Titans to 133 total yards in Week 1. That should provide a much more accurate representation of what the Indianapolis offense will look like in 2025.

2. Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson bottled

Robinson's third NFL season began about as good as one could, when the 2023 first-rounder took a completion out of the backfield 50 yards for a touchdown on the Falcons opening possession against the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This offseason, Robinson discussed wanting to be more explosive, and he certainly was on his second offensive touch. However, Tampa Bay contained the dynamic back the rest of the game in a 23-20 win, particularly on the ground, limiting Robinson to 24 yards on 12 carries (two yards per attempt). Bucs linebackers SirVocea Dennis and Lavonte David were excellent against the run, combining for four stops, or tackles that result in a failed play for the offense, including on Robinson rushing attempts (h/t NFL Pro). Edge-rusher YaYa Diaby also had a crucial stop on a 4th-and-1 from midfield against Robinson in the second quarter.

As defenses grow to respect the Falcons pass offense and quarterback Michael Penix Jr., that should open up running lanes for Robinson, who showed in Week 1 that he can score from anywhere on the field.

Robinson's Week 2 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings is difficult, but he had 22 carries for 92 yards against them a season ago, one of 10 games he gained at least 90 yards, tied with Baltimore's Derrick for the second most in the league.

3. Ineffective Detroit Lions offense 

In Ben Johnson's three seasons as Lions offensive coordinator (2022-24), Detroit never had a game like the one it did against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. The Lions, who gained 246 yards, lost 27-13.

According to Stathead, from 2022 to 2024, Detroit was one of three teams — along with the Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles — that did not have a game in which it scored 13 or fewer points and gained 250 or fewer offensive yards.

It's not surprising that the Lions struggled in their first game in four seasons without Johnson calling offensive plays, particularly against a loaded Packers defense that recently acquired All-Pro edge-rusher Micah Parsons.

This season, Detroit's offense might never be the well-oiled machine it was with Johnson as offensive coordinator, but the unit will undoubtedly operate with more efficiency. A Week 2 home game against Johnson and the Chicago Bears would be a nice place to start.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers turning back the clock

The 21-year veteran had extra motivation in Week 1's 34-32 win over his former team, the New York Jets, recording his first game with four touchdown passes and no interceptions since December 2021. Rodgers picked on suspect Jets corners Michael Carter and Brandon Stephens, who combined to allow 10 receptions on 13 targets for 142 yards, per NFL Pro. It was important for Rodgers to show he can still have performances like his 2025 debut, but it still came with limitations.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell noted that the four-time MVP didn't attempt a pass over 20 yards. He also benefitted from pass-catchers averaging 7.8 yards after the catch, the second-highest mark in the league among Week 1 quarterbacks, and a Jets defense that missed 13 tackles, which only trailed the Steelers (17) for the most in Week 1. 

Rodgers set the bar high in his Steelers debut, but it could be hard to reach those heights consistently. The Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh's next opponent, intercepted San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy in a 17-13 loss and also generated pressure on 33.3 percent of Niners dropbacks, good for third highest from the opening weekend.

5. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow averages 3.5 yards per dropback

Has Burrow sent Cleveland Browns Andre Szmyt a gift basket yet? Without the kicker's awful game, Burrow (and poor his Week 1 start) might be a bigger story.

Burrow continued his streak of unimpressive Week 1 performances against the Browns. When accounting for rush attempts and sacks, he gained 98 yards on 28 dropbacks. Among Week 1 starting quarterbacks, only rookie Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans) averaged fewer yards per dropback (1.8).

Over the past three seasons, Burrow has averaged 119.7 pass yards per game in the season opener, but he has always bounced back. Cincinnati's Week 2 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars could be this year's springboard. In two previous games against Jacksonville, Burrow has averaged 324 passing yards per game. There's a decent chance  that by the team the regular season is over, we look back at Burrow's Week 1 dud as his worst performance of the season.

Eric Smithling

Eric Smithling is a writer based in New Orleans, LA, whose byline also appears on Athlon Sports. He has been with Yardbarker since September 2022, primarily covering the NFL and college football, but also the NBA, WNBA, men’s and women’s college basketball, NHL, tennis and golf. He holds a film studies degree from the University of New Orleans

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