Injured Padres four-time All-Star takes major step toward return

Bogaerts, 33 in October, was in the midst of an up-and-down season with the Padres prior to his injury. After a down season last year, Bogaerts struggled through the first two-plus months of the year, and on June 17 saw his slash line drop to a paltry .227/.304/.311 through 286 plate appearances. Between that and his rough 2024 campaign, many around the game were starting to worry for the Padres’ ability to get much of anything out of the 11-year contract they signed him to prior to the 2023 campaign. Fortunately, he’s looked more like his old self since then and has hit .304/.360/.473 with 24 extra-base hits and a 16.1% strikeout rate in his last 248 plate appearances.

That’s slightly better than his career slash line of .288/.350/.446, and it offered plenty of optimism regarding Bogaerts’s ability to play up to his career norms moving forward. He even made real strides defensively at shortstop, posting a +7 Outs Above Average despite historically being viewed as a lackluster defender behind the plate. Bogaerts’ resurgence provided plenty of optimism for the Padres’ ability to compete with the Dodgers down the stretch and into the postseason this year, but last month’s foot injury seemed to put all of that to a halt.

Xander Bogaerts' outlook and status

From the very start of the veteran’s recovery process, Padres brass have indicated they expected Bogaerts to be able to contribute in the postseason this year. The implication there, of course, was that the remainder regular season was more or less off the table for the veteran. For Bogaerts to be resuming baseball activities this quickly suggests some reason for optimism that he’ll be able to return, if not by the final game of the regular season, then in time for the wild-card series, where the Padres figure to face off against one of the Cubs, or Mets barring a surprise change in seeding. If the regular season ended today, San Diego would face Chicago in a three-game set at Wrigley Field.

Of course, it should be noted that sort of timeline would require Bogaerts to continue rehabbing at a fairly aggressive pace without suffering any setbacks. While adding Bogaerts back to the middle of a lineup that has relied on Jose Iglesias and his 66 wRC+ to be the primary answer at shortstop in his absence would be a huge boost for the Padres, they’re still not exactly hurting for offensive contributors after bringing in both Ramon Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn at this year’s trade deadline. Those additions have been enough to make San Diego the fifth-best offensive in the NL since the deadline, which should be enough to make them a formidable opponent given their dominant bullpen led by Mason Miller and Robert Suarez as well as a rotation that figures to feature Michael King, Nick Pivetta and Dylan Cease.