Why the Pirates’ rotten performance might affect Paul Skenes’ Cy Young case

Pittsburgh Pirates star hurler Paul Skenes has been baseball's most-dominant starter this year. 

In 178 innings, the reigning Rookie of the Year owns a 1.92 ERA with 203 strikeouts, a WHIP of 0.921 and an opponent batting average of just .193. After his start on Wednesday, Skenes leads all starters in ERA, WHIP, starts (30, 10-way tie) and leads the NL in strikeouts. In addition, he is MLB’s only starter with a sub-2.00 ERA. Given these stats, it would seem his name is already being engraved on the NL Cy Young Award. However, there are two factors that could make his case a shaky one — and they’re almost entirely out of his hands.

On Wednesday, the Pirates lost to the Baltimore Orioles, lowering their last-place record to 64-82. Skenes pitched five innings without surrendering a run, but took a no-decision. Per Stats Perform, the last pitcher to win a Cy Young with a last-place team was Felix Hernandez with the Seattle Mariners in 2010 (back when the AL West had only four teams). That season, Hernandez posted the lowest ERA in the league and led the AL in starts as well as innings pitched, coming second in strikeouts by a single whiff. It’s also fair to mention he threw six complete-games, one being a shutout. Winning a Cy Young on a last-place team is doable, but the fact that the Pirates are last in the NL Central isn’t the only knock against Skenes.

The kicker here is all the wasted gems Skenes has spun thanks to the lifeless offense behind him. The Pirates’ cumulatively own the game’s lowest home run total, slugging percentage and OPS. The result: a mediocre 10-9 record for their premier ace. Winning a Cy Young with this record isn’t unheard of. Jacob deGrom did it in 2018 with this exact record. However, Skenes is walking a fine line. No starter has won the award with a win-loss record at .500 or below (reliever Eric Gagne is the only pitcher to win a Cy Young Award with a losing record, reliever Bruce Sutter is the only pitcher to win it with a .500 record). Should Skenes’ record fall below this threshold in his last few starts of the season, this could potentially damage his solid Cy Young case.

Could the Pirates ruin Paul Skenes’ Cy Young chances?

Although it may appear unfair, voters sometimes favor players who lead their teams towards some form of tangible success. Skenes’ record will likely be compared to that of Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, who owns a 16-6 record, leading the NL in wins (tied with Carlos Rodon and Max Fried in the AL). And the fact that Peralta pitches for a first-place team might be a slight factor when voting. To his credit, Skenes has given his team plenty of opportunities to succeed, it’s only that the Pirates seldom exploit these opportunities.

As of Thursday, Skenes is a clear frontrunner for the NL Cy Young Award. Overall, it would seem an injustice if he were to continue his dominance and not win, regardless of what his record looks like at the end of the season. However, the pitcher with the lowest ERA doesn’t always take home the gold. If wins and losses for both pitcher and team are significant factors in the minds of the voters this time around, the Cy Young race might be swayed in an unexpected direction – though this will likely only happen if Skenes posts a losing record.