John Mateer's injury is devastating, but Oklahoma still has legit CFP path

Oklahoma Sooners star quarterback John Mateer is undergoing surgery on Wednesday to address a right-hand injury, head coach Brent Venables said, which is a huge short-term blow for the Sooners. 

However, Oklahoma can still make a realistic run to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Reports indicate that Mateer could miss three or more weeks, although Venables says he expects that the redshirt junior quarterback from Little Elm, Texas, "will return to action sometime this season," according to a statement from Oklahoma's athletics department.

What lies next for Oklahoma Sooners?

While the Sooners being without the 6-foot-1, 224-pound Mateer for a period of time isn't ideal, Oklahoma's 2025 campaign is far from over. The Sooners are 4-0 and ranked No. 7 in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll. Oklahoma has one of the more impressive resumes thus far in the 2025 season, having defeated a pair of top 25 foes, both at home, in Michigan and then Auburn on Sept. 20.

In Week 5, the Sooners have a bye. That's helpful. On Saturday, Oct. 4, Oklahoma will host Kent State. In that non-conference contest, sophomore Michael Hawkins Jr. will start for the Sooners at quarterback. Last year, the 6-foot-1, 206-pound Hawkins made four starts at quarterback, so he possesses a decent amount of playing experience at Oklahoma.  

"We have all the confidence in the world in Michael and are excited for his opportunity to lead our offense while John recovers. He had some big moments for us last season as a true freshman and has just gotten better and better," Venables said.

Oklahoma Sooners can make a run to the CFP

Assuming Oklahoma gets by Kent State to get to 5-0, of the Sooners' remaining seven regular-season games, six of those Southeastern Conference opponents are ranked. That's tough. Oklahoma, though, could potentially sneak into the CFP with a 9-3 record in the regular season. That means the Sooners would need to go just 4-3 over those final seven encounters.

Oklahoma will host No. 13 Ole Miss, No. 20 Missouri and No. 4 LSU. The Sooners will face No. 10 Texas in Dallas, while Oklahoma travels to South Carolina, No. 15 Tennessee and No. 17 Alabama. There are numerous winnable games on that schedule for the Sooners, especially if Mateer returns after only missing two to three contests.

He injured his hand in the first quarter of Oklahoma's 24-17 triumph over Auburn. Entering Week 5, Mateer is a significant Heisman Trophy contender, but that could change if he doesn't come back for a while.

A true dual-threat quarterback, Mateer is completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,215 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. On the ground, he has carried the ball 43 times for 190 yards and five more scores. According to Oklahoma Athletics, Mateer has rushed for at least one touchdown and passed for at least one touchdown in each of his last 10 games dating back to the 2024 campaign.

If Mateer doesn't return this season, the Sooners' CFP chances go way down. Yet, if he only misses two to three games, Oklahoma has an excellent shot at going 9-3 or better in the 2025 regular season.