'Narrative vote': Baseball insider makes thoughts clear on AL MVP

The race for the American League MVP could come down to a handful of votes, with either the New York Yankees' Aaron Judge or the Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh as the winner. There could be a chance there’s a co-MVP situation, which hasn’t happened since 1979 with the St. Louis Cardinals' Keith Hernandez and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Willie Stargell in the National League. 

One thing is clear, however: The debate on who should be the MVP rages, with everyone firmly entrenched in their respective camps. ESPN senior insider Jeff Passan made his feelings known.

“The objective vote is for Aaron Judge, the narrative vote is unquestionably for Cal Raleigh,” Passan said on "The Dan Patrick Show."

Passan explained his reasoning, stating that Judge is in one of the more historic four-year stretches in baseball history. 

"Aaron Judge is in the midst of one of the great stretches in baseball history for hitters, putting him up there with Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and I'm not sure who else," Passan said. "It's one of those types of stretches where when you look at what Aaron Judge has done over the last four seasons, in particular, but really for the entirety of his career. He has made himself within 10 years an inner-circle, first-ballot, no-doubt Hall of Famer, who's going to go down among the greatest players in the history of the greatest franchise in baseball.

"And this year in particular, what he's doing. He's leading the league in batting, hitting .330 or around .330 when nobody hits for average anymore, in an era where home runs are not difficult to come by, necessarily, but certainly not easy, he's going out and hitting them with regularity. He gets on base more than anyone. He slugs better than anyone. He just puts up numbers that are so much different than everybody else in the sport. He is the outlier, Dan.”

Cal Raleigh is the clear-cut MVP

Even though Judge and Raleigh have both had one of the most historic seasons in baseball history, Raleigh is doing something slightly more historic than Judge, given that he’s a catcher and a switch-hitter.

Raleigh is only the seventh player in baseball history to achieve 60 home runs in a season (which Judge did in 2022), surpassing Hall of Famer Mickey Mantle for most home runs by a switch-hitter, and is the sole reason the Mariners won the American League West for the first time in 24 years (2001), which makes him truly the most valuable player. 

Outside of home runs, Raleigh has shown himself to be a prolific run producer, sitting well ahead of Judge in total RBI this season, with 125 RBI to Judge's 109. Raleigh has also appeared in more games than Judge this season, with Raleigh playing in 156 games (120 at catcher/36 at DH), while Judge has played in 149 games (92 in right field/56 at DH). 

Playing the field is valuable, and playing 28 more games in the field, especially at a physically demanding position, should guarantee you the award.

Breaking the AL home-run record could do it for Cal Raleigh

As it stands, Raleigh is two home runs away from tying Judge for the American League single-season home run record, and he needs three to break it. If he could do that and surpass Judge, it could he what he needs to put him over the top. 

With three games left, all versus the Los Angeles Dodgers, there is a possibility. The Dodgers will be sending two right-handers, Emmet Sheehan and Tyler Glasnow, and one left-hander, further Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, to the mound. With Raleigh tallying 38 home runs versus right-handers and 22 versus lefties and averaging one home run per every 14.17 at-bats, the likelihood he'll pull it off is high.