Three NBA teams that could outperform expectations in 2025-26

NBA training camps opened on Monday ahead of the 2025-26 season, which tips off on Oct. 21.

With only three weeks to go before the season begins, we're taking a look at three teams that could surpass expectations over the next seven months.

Dallas Mavericks

With the shock of last season's Luka Doncic trade subsided, the Mavericks have an opportunity to quickly return to the playoffs following a one-year absence. While nine-time All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving's timeline for a return from a January 2025 torn ACL remains unclear, Dallas still has veteran talent in shooting guard Klay Thompson and power forward Anthony Davis. The duo, plus rookie No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, should keep the Mavs competitive in the deep Western Conference.

Dallas, which went 39-43 in 2024-25, has a projected over-under win total of 40.5 games, per ESPN BET. With better health — and no controversial trades — the Mavericks are likely to be more competitive this season, allowing it to be one of the year's biggest surprises after exiting last season as one of the biggest disappointments.

New Orleans Pelicans

Power forward Zion Williamson turned heads earlier this month when he appeared at the Pelicans' practice facility looking noticeably slimmer, and the 2019 No. 1 overall pick told reporters he's feeling the best he has since playing at Duke. Williamson's earned skepticism with his troubling injury history — he's missed more games than he's played since entering the league — but if this is the year he finally actualizes his potential, New Orleans could blow past its 30.5 projected over-under win total.

Just two years ago, in 2023-24, the Pelicans were 49-33, two games shy of a Western Conference top-four seed. New Orleans was derailed by injuries last season, not just to Williamson but also Herb Jones, Trey Murphy and Dejounte Murray, among others. Offseason trade acquisition Jordan Poole should provide an immediate scoring punch as Murray recovers from a ruptured Achilles, while Jose Alvarado, Saddiq Bey and Kevon Looney offer valuable depth on the second unit.

Toronto Raptors

With injuries hitting several top Eastern Conference foes, the Raptors might be in a position to take advantage. The Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics will be without Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum, respectively, while the Milwaukee Brewers used the stretch provision to waive nine-time All-Star Damian Lillard after he tore his Achilles during the playoffs.

The Raptors went 30-52 last season but took positive strides during the back-end of the year, going 21-21 over their final 42 games, tied for the eighth-best record in the East. During that span, only the Oklahoma City Thunder, last year's NBA champs, posted a better defensive rating. (h/t Stathead)

Power forward Scottie Barnes, 24, is an ascending star and potential All-Defensive Team candidate. Over the past two seasons, he's one of three players with 150 blocks and 150 steals, joining Davis and Memphis Grizzlies power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. Small forward Brandon Ingram, acquired in a trade deadline deal with the Pelicans in February, is expected to be fully healthy after not playing a game for Toronto a season ago.

According to ESPN BET, the Raptors have an over-under win total set at 38.5 games. After recording the East's fifth-worst record (171-229) and one winning season since hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy at the end of the 2019 NBA Finals, Toronto might be ready to once again be a factor in the playoff conversation.