The Big Five: NFL’s biggest surprises of the 2025 season — for better or worse

The 2025 NFL season has already produced unexpected plot twists, with projected playoff teams struggling and preseason afterthoughts becoming the talk of the town.

For better or worse, here are the NFL's most surprising teams entering Week 6.

1. Baltimore Ravens (1-4)

When things can't possibly get worse for the Ravens, they reach new depths. By losing 44-10 in Week 5 to the Houston Texans, a team it has historically dominated, Baltimore tied for its worst home loss in franchise history.

The Ravens made moves this week to improve a putrid secondary, acquiring safety Alohi Gilman from the Los Angeles Chargers for edge-rusher Odafe Oweh and signing free-agent safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but that's unlikely to provide immediate relief. In Week 6, Baltimore hosts the Los Angeles Rams, who have the league's second-ranked pass offense, so QB Matthew Stafford should carve up the defensive backfield with wideouts Puka Nacua (who is on a pace for a record-shattering season) and Davante Adams.

Baltimore's offense, which is likely to be without two-time MVP starting quarterback Lamar Jackson (hamstring) for the second consecutive week, won't be able to keep up in a shootout. Oddsmakers agree, with Los Angeles an 8.5-point favorite, per ESPN BET. 

The Ravens appear headed for a 1-5 record entering their Week 7 bye, but they have a much more favorable schedule when they return. According to ESPN's NFL Football Power Index, Baltimore ranks No. 25 in remaining strength of schedule. With a healthy Jackson and an AFC North up for grabs, don't rule out a second-half surge. Yet it's just as likely Baltimore spends all season in a hole it can't get out of.

2. Indianapolis Colts (4-1)

The most surprising success story of the season is in Indianapolis, which has surpassed all expectations. Quarterback Daniel Jones, who entered 2025 3-13 in his past 16 starts, is playing like an MVP candidate. Through five games, the No. 6 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft is 107-of-150 (71.3 percent) for 1,290 yards, nine total touchdowns and two interceptions.

The offense has generated most of the headlines, and for good reason, but the defense has been a revelation as well. The unit has held three of its first five opponents under 300 yards and forced a turnover in each game. Indy's fortune might not change in Week 6 as it hosts the Arizona Cardinals, who are coming off one of the most embarrassing collapses in recent history, blowing an 18-point lead at home to the previously winless Tennessee Titans. Arizona (2-3) has turned the ball over five times in its past two games.

With road games remaining against the Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, the Colts will soon provide a more accurate gauge on where they stand. But rather than being a Week 1 flash in the pan, Indianapolis looks built for the long haul.

3. San Francisco 49ers (4-1)

Colts head coach Shane Steichen's main competition for Coach of the Year should be Kyle Shanahan, who has done a masterful job of leading a hobbled 49ers squad to the top of the NFC West. San Francisco is 3-0 without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, with Mac Jones joining Daniel Jones as one of the year's great reclamation projects. The Niners are also thriving without elite production in the run game from Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry.

San Francisco is already 3-0 in division games, but to maintain its edge in the NFC West, the offense must become more balanced. Through Week 5, the Niners are first in pass offense (290.6 yards per game) but rank last in yards per rush attempt (3.1) and are the league's only team without a rushing touchdown. (Every other team has at least two.)

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1)

The Jaguars made the AFC South the only NFL division with two one-loss teams after coming back to win at home against the three-time defending AFC champion Chiefs in Week 5.

Jacksonville ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in both scoring offense and scoring defense. The Jaguars have ascending talent on both sides of the ball, with running back Travis Etienne (443 rushing yards) averaging career highs in yards per carry (5.8) and rush yards per game (88.6). First-year head coach Liam Coen has done a good job of running him in advantageous situations, with Etienne only facing a stacked box (eight or more defenders near the line of scrimmage) on 13 percent of his carries, the sixth-lowest rate among qualifying running backs, per NFL Pro.

The defense, led by first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, a former Green Bay Packers linebackers coach/run game coordinator, has more than held up on its end, forcing an NFL-high 14 turnovers. Linebacker Devin Lloyd (four interceptions, one fumble recovery) is one of the league's most improved players. ESPN's FPI gives the Jaguars a 75.4 percent chance to reach the playoffs, the third-highest odds in the AFC, trailing the Buffalo Bills (92.2 percent) and Colts (85 percent).

5. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

"I'm processing it poorly to tell you the truth," first-year Raiders head coach Pete Carroll, 74, told reporters after his team's 40-6 trouncing at the Colts last Sunday.

"I did expect to win right out of the chutes," Carroll added. Technically, Las Vegas did, defeating the New England Patriots (3-2) in Week 1. But four consecutive losses have dimmed hopes of a playoff run and instead raised significant questions, particularly at quarterback.

Geno Smith, acquired in a trade with the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason, has regressed significantly after a strong three-year run as Seahawks starter. Through five games, Smith leads the NFL in interceptions (nine), throwing one on 5.5 percent of his pass attempts, more than double his rate from 2022-24 (2.1 percent).

Instead of contending for a postseason spot, the Raiders, a longtime doormat,  are closer to the No. 1 pick. Las Vegas is projected to end the season with the league's fifth-worst record, per ESPN. The more things change, the more they stay the same.