Why a win in the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas can lead to a NASCAR championship

As the NASCAR Cup Series prepares for a trip out west to Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday (5:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), the first spot in the Championship Four will be up for grabs.

Denny Hamlin, who is still in search of his elusive Cup Series title, holds a slim eight-point advantage above the cutline as the remaining eight drivers enter the penultimate round of the postseason.

While the points are as tight as ever, history suggests a win on Sunday bodes well for a title-clincher three weeks later in Phoenix.

A win at Las Vegas can set the stage for a title at Phoenix

In the 11 years of the playoff elimination format since its debut in 2014, the winner of the opening race in the Round of 8 has gone on to win the championship five times, including three of the last four, per NASCAR.com.

Hall of Famer Jimmie Johnson (2016) was the first to do so when he won at Martinsville on his way to a record-tying seventh title. Joey Logano (2018, 2022, 2024) has won the opening race in the Round of 8 each time he won the championship and Kyle Larson (2021) was victorious at Texas before claiming his first title.

The winner of the Las Vegas race has proceeded to win the championship two of the last three years since it was put in this spot on the playoffs schedule. Logano has won the two while Larson was runner-up in 2023.

Three of the five instances occurred at another track altogether, but the success drivers have had after winning the Round of 8 opener speaks to its importance, especially this season with the unpredictable Talladega Superspeedway (Oct. 19) and the drama of the elimination race at Martinsville (Oct. 26) lurking afterward.

Regardless of which track has played host to the Round of 8 opener, it is hard to ignore the benefits that come with winning the race and having two extra weeks to prepare for the championship race. With the competitiveness throughout the field and the difficulty that comes with finding an edge, any advantage a driver and team can get could be the difference between winning or losing the title.

The current playoff format lends itself to the last-lap drama that unfolded at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval last weekend and could be facing some major changes during the offseason in an effort to reward drivers more for their season-long consistency instead of it coming down to one race. 

With that said, the 2025 champion will be determined the same way since the current format was implemented in 2014. If history repeats itself, the winner of Sunday's race could be in the driver's seat to take the championship at Phoenix.