Alex Bregman's opt-out decision will have major consequences

Alex Bregman is coming off a strong season

The 31-year-old batted .273/.360/.462 with a 125 wRC+ in 114 games for Boston. After posting an uncharacteristically low 6.7% walk rate in 2024, he rebounded to 10.3% in 2025, while his strikeout rate increased only modestly to a still-excellent 14.1%. His batted-ball metrics back up his performance, with his 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate both representing career highs. Despite missing seven weeks in the first half of the season with a right quad injury, Bregman was worth 3.5 fWAR this year, ranking seventh among major league third basemen with a minimum of 400 plate appearances.

Defensively, Bregman graded out as above average, if a step down from his 2024 season. In 972 1/3 innings at third base, he was worth one Defensive Run Saved and three Outs Above Average in 2025, with Statcast valuing his range in the 83rd percentile. For comparison, he was worth 6 DRS and 8 OAA with the Astros last year. Defensive metrics are notoriously tricky, of course, but it appears Bregman remains a defensive asset as he continues into his 30s.

Financial repercussions of the opt-out

By opting out, Bregman is forgoing two years at a $40M AAV. That figure is somewhat misleading, though, as $60M of the $120M total is deferred through 2035-46, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press, which lowers the contract’s AAV significantly. In any case, Bregman will undoubtedly look to top that guarantee in his second straight trip to the free-agent market. 

Prior to this year’s quad injury, he had three consecutive seasons of good health from 2022-24 and is a reasonable bet to stay healthy moving forward. While he signed a short-term, high-AAV deal with opt-outs last time around, he should have better luck on the market this time.

Under the terms of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and the MLB Players Association, Bregman is ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after receiving one from the Astros last offseason. A prospective team will not need to forfeit draft pick compensation to sign Bregman this time around. A look at our 2025-26 MLB Free Agents list shows Bregman as the clear headliner at third base, with Eugenio Suarez representing the next-best option. Suarez, 34, hit 49 home runs this season and matched Bregman’s 125 wRC+, but he is also a defensive liability.

Should Alex Bregman and the Red Sox reunite?

Given the state of the market, his ineligibility for another qualifying offer and his strong platform season, Bregman will likely be seeking a long-term contract this offseason. A reunion with the Red Sox is certainly possible, with the team having traded Rafael Devers to the Giants this past June. 

The team did not exceed the luxury-tax threshold in 2024, though they appear on track to exceed this year’s $241M threshold by several million, according to RosterResource. The team will see Steven Matz’s $12.5M salary come off the books this offseason. They might also decline their end of Lucas Giolito’s $19M mutual option depending on the severity of his recent elbow issue. Liam Hendriks underwent ulnar nerve transposition surgery in September and will likely see his $12M mutual option declined.

If the team runs a similar payroll in 2026 following this year’s postseason appearance, the club might make a run at re-signing Bregman. The Tigers and Cubs were both in on Bregman last winter and might have some interest in him as well. The Cubs were reportedly only interested in Bregman on a short-term deal, though, and their incumbent third baseman, Matt Shaw, showed promise in his debut this year. 

In contrast, Tigers third basemen ranked 26th in the majors this year with a 76 wRC+ and would benefit substantially from a player of Bregman’s caliber. If Bregman departs Boston, the Red Sox could hand the reins to Marcelo Mayer or make a play for Suarez or Muncy in free agency.