Predicting top 2026 NFL Draft QBs becoming a futile exercise

Good luck figuring out this year's top NFL Draft quarterback prospects.

On Wednesday, the revolving door continued rotating when ESPN released an updated 2026 NFL Draft mock draft. Yet another quarterback has emerged at No. 1, revealing the exercise in futility that is projecting this year's class.

Unpredictable quarterback class throws curve in recent 2026 NFL Draft mock draft

According to ESPN NFL Draft analyst Jordan Reid, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has vaulted to the top of the NFL Draft, where he's projected to land with the New York Jets. (R.I.P. to his career if that turns out to be true).

Mendoza is the latest quarterback to be labeled the top of the class, and his ascendency highlights how challenging this year's evaluations have been. During the preseason, Texas quarterback Arch Manning was the projected QB1. Less than a month into the college football season, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier leapt to pole position.

Mendoza's play has certainly earned him a closer inspection from NFL scouts. He's guided Indiana to a 6-0 record and is coming off a massive road win at Oregon (5-1, 2-1 in Big Ten). This season, Mendoza is 109-of-153 (71.2 percent) for 1,423 yards, 17 touchdowns and two interceptions.

But based on how this year's gone so far, it would be a surprise if he maintains his place atop the leaderboard. At this point, no one knows who the best quarterback in the 2026 class will be.

Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore, QB2 in ESPN's most recent mock draft, both have remaining eligibility next season and have yet to announce their decisions for 2026. Both could stay in college, or like the projected top picks before them, they could falter in the coming weeks, leading to someone like Miami's Carson Beck or Baylor's Sawyer Robertson to become the next quarterback du jour.

This draft cycle will continue churning out possible QB1s until one sticks. Mock drafts are most valuable as a snapshot of where prospects stand at certain moments in time, and the earliest 2026 mocks have shown there are no sure things among this year's quarterbacks. For college football fans and draft obsessives, it's best to just enjoy the ride.