Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning. Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

How QB Arch Manning's return to Texas impacts 2026, 2027 NFL Drafts

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Dec 16, 2025 3:40 PM ET

Don't be surprised if teams are lining up for quarterbacks in the 2027 NFL Draft.

On Monday night, Cooper Manning, the father of Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch, texted ESPN's Dave Wilson that his son will return to school for the 2026 season. Arch Manning's decision could have a ripple effect on the 2026 and 2027 drafts.

Why Arch Manning's choice has enormous ramifications for 2026 and 2027 NFL Drafts

Many QB-needy teams were likely eyeing Arch Manning because of his last name. He's the nephew of Super Bowl champions Peyton and Eli and grandson of 1971 No. 2 pick Archie. His return to Austin makes the 2026 draft — scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh — even thinner at the most important position.

On his updated QB board, ESPN's Jordan Reid gave only two passers first-round grades: Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) and Oregon's Dante Moore (6-foot-3, 206 pounds). The Ringer's Todd McShay has reported Moore is expected to return to school in 2026.

Arch Manning struggled at times in 2025, completing a season-low 44% of his passes in a 27-10 Week 3 win over UTEP. The Texas faithful showered him with boos during the dreadful performance.

However, he has steadily improved throughout the season. Over his past five games, the QB has thrown 12 TD passes and two interceptions (via StatMuse). He also carried the Longhorns to a 27-17 win over the Texas A&M Aggies in the Lone Star Showdown on Nov. 28.

Manning gone mobile ️ pic.twitter.com/7Hm6UlDzGO
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) November 29, 2025

Combine his trajectory with his pedigree, and scouts believe he can be a first-round pick whenever he turns pro.

"He'll be the first quarterback taken and a possible first overall pick whenever he decides to come out," an NFL executive told Fox Sports' Ralph Vacchiano for a story published Dec. 10. "Don't underestimate the power of the Manning name. Some franchise would be thrilled to dive into that gene pool."

For those who think Arch Manning (6-foot-4, 219 pounds) will be a surefire No. 1 pick in 2027, not so fast. He may not even be the top QB in a stacked class.

South Carolina Gamecocks QB LaNorris Sellers (6-foot-3, 240 pounds) is reportedly returning to school after accounting for 18 TDs (13 passing, five rushing) in 12 games in 2025. And what about Ohio State Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin (6-foot-1, 208 pounds)? The first-year starter was named a 2025 Heisman finalist and is on pace to break the FBS record for completion percentage (78.4% in 13 games) in a season.

On paper, that's a fantastic crop, which may convince some QB-needy teams to place their bets on the 2027 class. That, of course, is a gamble.

Much could change over the next year. Remember, 2026 was supposed to be stellar at QB. In his preseason mock draft, ESPN's Field Yates had six QBs going in the first round, including Arch Manning and Sellers. Clearly, it won't come close to that number in April.

That won't stop some teams from waiting on Arch Manning, who has been in the limelight since middle school. With that in mind, 2027 may be the year of the QB instead of 2026.

Clark Dalton

Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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