Why the Hawks won't live up to hype in 2025-26

The Atlanta Hawks spent the offseason reshaping the roster yet again, trying to convince themselves that a new mix might finally unlock the formula. 

On paper, the additions look impressive: Nickeil Alexander-Walker brings length and point-of-attack defense; Kristaps Porziņgis (if healthy) adds floor spacing and rim protection; Luke Kennard gives the second unit an elite shooter; and Dyson Daniels, fresh off a Defensive Player of the Year nod, projects as a strong backcourt complement to Trae Young. Collectively, they offer better spacing, defense, switchability and two-way depth than Atlanta has had in years.

And yet, the question that has haunted this franchise for half a decade remains unanswered: who is the true No. 1 option on a team that still hasn’t proven it can defend or close games at a championship level?

For all his offensive brilliance, Young remains a paradox. He’s one of the most productive creators in the league, but his style narrows Atlanta’s ceiling. Young’s career true-shooting percentage sits around league average despite his ultra-high usage, a symptom of his reliance on deep threes and foul-drawing over efficient, repeatable scoring. His size at 6’1”, 164 pounds makes him a constant target defensively, forcing the Hawks to scheme around his weaknesses instead of through them. Coaches from Lloyd Pierce to Nate McMillan to now Quin Snyder have tried to build systems that balance young's on-ball usage with defense fortification. 

The “coach-killer” label is crude, but the pattern is there. Besides one Eastern Conference Finals run, Young’s individual brilliance hasn’t translated into sustained success. Even with new defensive-minded additions like Daniels and Alexander-Walker, Atlanta’s system still begins, and too often ends, with Young. Looking at NBA modernity, that’s not the blueprint of a contender.

If the Hawks are to climb out of the Eastern Conference middle class, the ascension must come from Jalen Johnson.

Last season, Johnson emerged from obscurity to become the team’s most versatile two-way piece. His scoring jumped to 18.9 points per game, his rebounding reached double digits (10.0) and his playmaking produced five dimes a game. 

Johnson’s timing as a screener supports his ability to slip into open space when Young draws doubles, and his improved catch-and-shoot efficiency (51.2 efg% on 3.5 attempts per game) all make him the connective tissue the offense desperately needs. 

But he’s way more than a complementary cutter. His on-ball mid-range work on spins and left-handed fadeaways gives him the self-creation potential the Hawks have lacked next to Young. The on-ball improvement has to come on pull-ups. Last year, before his injury he looked like a Most Improved Player front-runner. But the pull-up numbers (25.4 efg%) are holding him back from being a primary option. It's too easy to sag off him in transition and let opposing centers fall into drop coverage to dare him to shoot from the nail. 

At 6'9" Johnson's length and instincts, paired with Dyson Daniels’ relentless screen navigation and league-leading deflection rate, transformed the Hawks from 27th in defensive rating two seasons ago to 18th last year. 

But for the Hawks to truly matter, Johnson has to do more than complement Young — he has to surpass him. Many of the East’s elite teams have a forward who dictates both ends: Jayson Tatum, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paolo Banchero. Johnson’s growth toward that archetype is Atlanta’s only path to real contention.

Otherwise, the Hawks’ summer moves will amount to little more than another round of rearranging talent around a star who can’t quite lead them where they need to go.