Five Week 9 games that can swing CFP race

With teams entering the back-half of their 2025 schedules, the College Football Playoff picture is beginning to take shape.

We'll get a better idea of which programs will be playing meaningful games deep into the year this weekend, headlined by three Associated Press top 25 SEC showdowns for the second week in a row.

Below, we take a closer look at five Week 9 games this Saturday that can have the biggest impact on the playoff race.

No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels (6-1, 3-1 in SEC) at No. 13 Oklahoma Sooners (6-1, 2-1 in SEC)

12 p.m. ET • ABC

Ole Miss and Oklahoma both need a win to remain in the SEC title game conversation. The Rebels have a favorable schedule after this weekend, making the ranked SEC showdown their last chance to notch a quality regular-season win. The Sooners, meanwhile, are beginning a stretch of five consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the AP poll. A loss to Ole Miss would by no means eliminate Oklahoma, but it would leave it without any margin of error against what ranks as the second-toughest remaining strength of schedule according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

No. 18 South Florida Bulls (6-1, 3-0 in American) at Memphis Tigers (6-1, 2-1 in American)

12 p.m. ET • ESPN2

Expect a playoff atmosphere in Memphis. The Tigers could be in a must-win situation after last weekend's stunning loss to UAB (3-4, 1-3 in American). Per ESPN's FPI, South Florida has the best chance (46 percent) of earning an automatic CFB bid, and a win over Memphis would move it closer to qualifying for the American Conference championship game, the first step in reaching the 12-team playoff. 

But the Tigers could open the door for chaos by handing the Bulls their first conference loss of the season. The American championship game winner would likely still be the favorite to reach the playoff, but James Madison (6-1, 4-0 in Sun Belt), UNLV (6-1, 2-1 in MWC) and Boise State (5-2, 3-0 in MWC), among others, would have a more viable pathway if the conference continues to beat itself.

No. 15 Missouri Tigers (6-1, 2-1 in SEC) at No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores (6-1, 2-1 in SEC)

3:30 p.m. ET • ESPN

Vanderbilt inched closer to an improbable CFP berth with last weekend's win over LSU, the program's first in the series in 35 years. With challenging upcoming road games against No. 22 Texas (5-2, 2-1 in SEC) and No. 17 Tennessee (5-2, 2-2 in SEC), the Commodores could use another top 25 win to avoid falling too far with losses against either (or both). 

Per ESPN's interactive playoff predictor, the Commodores would still have a more than 1-in-4 chance (26 percent) of making the playoff with a win over Missouri and losses to Texas and Tennessee — assuming it also wins home games against Auburn (3-4, 0-4 in SEC) and Kentucky (2-4, 0-4 in SEC).

Missouri has been slept on in the SEC race, but it's the only program to rank in the top five in the conference in both scoring offense (39 points per game) and defense (16.7 points per game). It has other difficult remaining games against Texas A&M and Oklahoma, and the playoff predictor suggests Mizzou could be a near lock for a playoff spot with wins in two of its three toughest remaining games, along with beating Mississippi State (4-3, 0-3 in SEC) and Arkansas (2-5, 0-3 in SEC).

No. 11 BYU Cougars (7-0, 4-0 in Big 12) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (5-2, 2-2 in Big 12)

3:30 p.m. ET • Fox

The Big 12's dream scenario of securing two playoff bids likely hinges on BYU running the table during the regular season before falling in the conference title game. Iowa State, once a top Big 12 contender, has nosedived with back-to-back losses after losing its top two cornerbacks for the season, but can turn the conference into a one-bid league with a home win. According to ESPN BET, the Cyclones are a 3.5-point favorite.

No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies (7-0, 4-0 in SEC) at No. 20 LSU Tigers (5-2, 2-2 in SEC)

7:30 p.m. ET • ABC

Death Valley could be where LSU's playoff dreams go to die if the Tigers are unable to pull off an upset over Texas A&M, which hasn't won in Baton Rouge since 1994 but stands as the SEC's last undefeated team. The Aggies currently have an 84 percent chance of reaching the playoff, and that will only increase with win on Saturday. But losing to LSU, followed by defeats later this season at Missouri and Texas, would drop their odds to 44 percent, barring additional losses to either South Carolina (3-4, 1-4 in SEC) or FCS Samford (1-6, 1-4 in Southern).