What does the Stars' Thomas Harley extension mean for Jason Robertson?

Harley has emerged as Dallas' No. 2 defenseman, but he'd be the No. 1 defenseman on most teams in the NHL.

He and fellow defenseman Miro Heiskanen give Dallas a baseline of one elite defenseman on the ice for more than 40 minutes every night when both are healthy. It buys critical insurance few teams have — and that paid off for Dallas when Heiskanen was hurt in the 2024-25 playoffs.

According to PuckPedia, Dallas now has slightly more than $17.3M in cap space for next season. The Stars have nine forwards, five defenseman and two goaltenders under contract. At minimum, they'll likely want to sign four additional forwards and two additional defenseman. The question: Can the Stars fill out a roster and still give Jason Robertson a major contract extension? 

Jason Robertson's performance in Dallas

The big question is whether Dallas thinks Robertson is worth his next deal. It doesn't seem likely that he would be willing to take less than the eight-year, $12M dollar annual deal that Dallas gave fellow winger Mikko Rantanen last year. 

Robertson has been remarkably consistent. He has one outlier season with 109 points. Otherwise, three of his last four seasons have included point totals of 79, 80 and 80. He's ninth among all forwards in five-on-five points between 2022-23 and 2024-25. Robertson brings a big 6-foot-3, 204 pound frame that can play both close to the net and in space.

Dallas' cap situation

The Stars probably need at least $4M in reserve to fill out a roster, reserving more than $13M for Robertson. That said, it's not likely Dallas would want to fill out five spots exclusively with veteran minimum contracts. It could do that with two, maybe three, of the five spots. Assume Dallas might want something closer to $6M to use to fill out those five spots, which complicates an extension for Robertson. 

The Stars do have contracts they can move, including Wyatt Johnston ($8.4M), Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25M), Sam Steel ($2.1M) and Radek Faksa ($2M). Realistically, Lyubushkin is probably the player Dallas would be most interested in moving. He and Steel are both entering the final years of their contracts in 2026-27. It would make some sense to try and escape the deal.

Dallas can do it, but it'll be tight

The reality is Dallas can probably sign Robertson if it wants. He's off to a point-per-game start through his first nine games in 2025. Another 80-point season for Robertson doesn't seem like a stretch on a Dallas team poised to make another deep playoff run. The issue here is opportunity cost. The Stars haven't won a Stanley Cup with this group. Can they justify signing Robertson to the type of extension that would make it difficult to make in-season and off-season improvements elsewhere? 

If the Stars offer Robertson the same cap ceiling percentage they offered Rantanen, it would come out to around $13M per year. Without subtracting one of the previously mentioned contracts, that would make things very tight for the Stars. They'd be running the bottom of their lineup almost entirely on veteran-minimum contracts just to fill out the roster. 

Ideally, Dallas could move Lyubushkin while convincing Robertson to remain as close to $12M-$13M annually as possible. If that doesn't happen, Robertson becomes the crown jewel of an otherwise vanilla talent pool this offseason.