Do advanced stats show why Giants' Abdul Carter is betting favorite for big honor?

Those who haven't watched the New York Giants each week during the 2025 season might think that pass-rusher Abdul Carter has underperformed in his rookie year. The Giants picked Carter third overall in April's draft, but he has recorded only one half-sack in the first nine games of his NFL career. 

However, ESPN's Bill Barnwell explained in a piece posted on Thursday why outlets like DraftKings Sportsbook have listed Carter as the betting favorite to win the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award in February. 

What advanced stats say about Abdul Carter's impact on games

"The underlying pressure metrics suggest that there's a lot more happening," Barnwell wrote about Carter. "He has been the best rookie pass-rusher in the NFL, and that has been by a considerable margin. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Carter has 34 pressures. No other rookie has more than 17. He has 20 quick pressures, the immediate victories that help blow up plays before they form. No other rookie has more than nine, and Carter's total is third among all players (trailing only Nik Bonitto and Will Anderson Jr.)."

Carter has created opportunities for his teammates to reach the quarterback. Per ESPN, linebacker Brian Burns enters Week 10 leading the NFL with 11 total sacks this season. 

Why Abdul Carter may not win DPOTY

The Giants are 2-7 but kept hold of key players like defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II, pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux and others through Tuesday's trade deadline. That said, the Giants' poor record and weak run defense hurt Carter's chances of winning the award. 

"He hasn't been excellent against the run, a team-wide problem for a Giants defense that ranks last in (expected points added) per play against designed rushes this season, but Carter's time is coming. Don't be surprised if he has a more visible second half," Barnwell added. 

Carter's next chance to impress will come when the Giants face the Chicago Bears (5-3) this Sunday. As of Thursday afternoon, DraftKings Sportsbook had Carter as the betting favorite at +145 odds to win the 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.