Four playoff pretenders at the midway point of the NFL season

The NFL postseason picture is starting to come into focus. It may be too early to see which team is a contender, but there are signs to figure out the pretenders.

Of course, with eight weeks of regular-season action left, the picture can change drastically. And these four teams will likely be either out of the postseason altogether or just looking at a short stay. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

The team made a competitive move, trading for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers to shore up its skill position group, while rookie receiver Travis Hunter is on injured reserve. But the Jaguars' No. 7 seed is in jeopardy with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to get out of the bubble, and the team's most important player not performing well.

On the season so far, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has an average expected points added of 25.8, the 23rd-best EPA among 32 quarterbacks. Lawrence was supposed to finally come into his own under first-year head coach Liam Coen, but he's scored just nine touchdowns and thrown six interceptions. Without Lawrence proving himself as a top-end quarterback, Jacksonville isn't ready to be a true wild card. 

San Francisco 49ers

It's a minor miracle that the 49ers have a winning record despite the slew of injuries they've had to top talent, but that's why coaching makes a difference in the NFL. Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, backup quarterback Mac Jones has an EPA of 34.8, ranking 15th among quarterbacks. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has also had his defense play well, keeping the team in games despite the absence of All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. 

Still, coaching can only take the San Francisco 49ers so far. Jones can't take the team to the Super Bowl with wide receivers continuing to get hurt. With injuries to top talent too severe to overcome, San Francisco's aspirations of competing for a Super Bowl are an unlikely dream this year.

Los Angeles Chargers

Much like the 49ers, injuries are a major reason the Chargers won't be a real threat when the postseason rolls around. Yes, with quarterback Justin Herbert under center, they'll always be competitive, but with both starting offensive tackles out for the season, the pressure will be too much to overcome. 

Through nine weeks, Herbert has a pressure-to-sack rate of 17.9%, the 18th highest rate in the league per Pro Football Focus, and is scrambling more than ever to escape the pocket. Herbert has been sacked 29 times already, and that likely won't slow down. It's a recipe for disaster when playing tougher competition in the playoffs, if the Chargers get that far.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is mostly playing like a potential MVP, but he's had to do that to keep the team afloat. Of the Buccaneers' six wins, four have been one-score games where Mayfield led the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. He's already matched his career high in game-winning drives just midway through the 2025 season.

While that means Tampa Bay can depend on Mayfield in any close game, it's no way for a team to live long-term. Add to that a potentially season-ending injury to wide receiver Mike Evans, and the Buccaneers will likely hit their ceiling early in the playoffs if the plan is to hope Mayfield can keep pulling wins out of his helmet.