Major domino falls for Yankees with Trent Grisham decision

Trent Grisham had a breakout season

It’s at least a modest surprise, as Grisham is coming off a breakout year at the plate that saw him club a career-high 34 home runs. He slashed .235/.348/.464, thanks in no small part to a career-best 14.1% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate that stood as the second-lowest in his career. Between that production, the fact that Grisham only just turned 29 earlier this month, and a thin outfield market in free agency, the stars seemed to align for him to pursue a weighty multi-year contract this winter.

Instead, Grisham returns to the site of his breakout and will hold down a key role in an outfield that’s also currently slated to include Jasson Dominguez and Aaron Judge. The Yankees are interested in re-signing Cody Bellinger, have been linked to Kyle Tucker and also have DH Giancarlo Stanton at least loosely in the outfield mix. (He played 132 outfield innings in 2025.)

How does Trent Grisham's decision affect the Yankees?

Grisham’s return muddies the waters a bit, but GM Brian Cashman said recently that even if he accepted, it wouldn’t impact the team’s pursuit of a new deal with Bellinger, via the New York Post’s Greg Joyce. The Yankees wouldn’t have made the QO to Grisham if they believed his acceptance was a roadblock to bringing back Bellinger or signing Tucker. They’re surely glad to have him back. Even though his defensive grades took an unexpected downturn in ’25, he has the best defensive track record in center of the Yankees’ in-house options.

While Grisham could have looked to cash in this winter, he’ll instead take a hefty one-year payday in what amounts to a bet on himself. Though he’s a left-handed bat, his power output was hardly a product of Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch. In fact, Grisham hit just .195/.326/.376 at home this season, compared to .254/.364/.506 on the road. If he can replicate this year’s huge power production, he could hit the market next offseason on the back of consecutive plus seasons at the plate and without the encumbrance of a qualifying offer. A big enough showing this year could realistically position Grisham for a $100M+ contract — particularly if his defensive grades rebound, too.

The looming potential for a work stoppage is one other wrinkle to consider, but if anything, today’s glut of QO decisions suggests that players aren’t necessarily going to shy away from short-term deals that put them on the open market next year — at least not en masse. Grisham is one of four players to accept the QO, joining Gleyber Torres, Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff in that regard. In a vacuum, any one of the four accepting his QO wouldn’t be considered a major surprise — but all four accepting in the same offseason is downright atypical. This marks the first time since the inception of the qualifying offer that more than three players have accepted a QO.

With Grisham back in the fold, the Yankees’ projected payroll for the upcoming season jumps to about $263M, per RosterResource. They’ll now have about $286M of luxury-tax obligations, placing them just over the third penalty line. That means that the Yankees’ top pick in the 2026 draft will drop by 10 places, unless they’re able to sneak their luxury count back under $284M. Given the wide swath of offseason dealings that’s likely still on the table for Cashman and Co., that doesn’t seem to be a very likely outcome. In all likelihood, the Yankees will wind up in the top CBT penalty tier, just as they’ve done in each of the past three seasons.

How does Trent Grisham's decision affect the rest of MLB?

Turning to the rest of the league, Grisham’s early removal from the free-agent market — to a team that didn’t clearly need to retain him, no less — subtracts arguably the top center field option from the market. Bellinger, of course, can still play center, but barely did so in 2025. Most teams probably consider him more of a corner outfielder/first baseman who can play occasional center field. Harrison Bader and Cedric Mullins are the two most notable options still on the market, though the former has been more of a part-time player and the latter is looking to bounce back from an awful 2025 showing. The market was light on center fielders to begin with and is even more so now, so teams looking for help at the position might be more inclined to turn to the trade market to address that deficiency.