Patrick Mahomes will have to be a miracle worker to get Chiefs in the playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs are not only on the outside of the AFC playoff picture after Thursday's 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, their playoff chances have dipped below 50% for the first time this season. They probably need to go, at least, 4-1 over their remaining five games to have even a realistic chance, and even then they might need some help. Their margin for error is almost non-existent. 

Given the way the season has gone there is not much evidence to suggest they are just going to flip some sort of magical switch and just start playing like the yearly Super Bowl contenders they have been since the arrival of Patrick Mahomes. 

It might take a Herculean effort from Mahomes to get this team in the playoffs. He might be the only person capable of it because everything else regarding this particular version of the Chiefs looks broken.

The Chiefs have issues all over the field and sidelines

The biggest problem for the Chiefs is there is not just one problem holding them back and that has put them in this position.

It's everything. It's every aspect of the team, all over the roster and all over the coaching staff.

There is not one thing they do exceptionally well on either side of the ball, they no longer have elite playmakers and their coaching staff — once a huge strength — has struggled to adjust to a roster that can not play the way they have been accustomed to playing.

But it's also a matter of personnel. The defensive line has not proven to be capable of generating any sort of a pass-rush with just four players. That has forced the Chiefs to rely on a blitz-heavy approach to try and generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But in doing so they have left parts of the secondary exposed and exploited in coverage. All of that was on display on Thursday as Cowboys wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens carved them up all day. 

On offense, they have been at times shockingly conservative with some of their decision-making. That was especially true on Thursday when head coach Andy Reid decided to punt from the plus-side of the field, on a 4th-and-short, in a game his team was losing. Putting his trust into a defense that had not proven it could get a stop on Sunday and not trusting his future Hall of Fame quarterback. 

Given the shortcomings of the roster and the struggles of the coaching staff this season might come down entirely to Mahomes' ability to put the team on his back and carry it in a way he has never had to before. 

The problem is that might not even be enough. On Thursday he threw for 261 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and posted a QBR of 85.1 and a passer rating of 129.7 (both significantly higher than his regular season numbers). It still was not enough for the Chiefs to win. 

The Chiefs are 12 games into the 2025 season and have consistently demonstrated they are a very flawed, very average football team. It is not an accident that they are in this position. The only way out of it is if Mahomes can do something truly special.