Scout's take about Texas QB Arch Manning's NFL Draft stock may surprise you

Despite a turbulent first season as a starter, Texas Longhorns sophomore quarterback Arch Manning could declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. 

How high would he go in the draft? One scout's answer to that question may surprise you.

Scout says Arch Manning could be No. 1 pick in 2026

"He might still go No. 1 [overall]," one scout told Fox Sports' Ralph Vacchiano. "All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he's got the size [6-foot-4, 219 pounds], the intangibles and the kid had some great games. 

"I think I'd still feel better about his future than anyone else in the year's class."

In his latest mock draft, ESPN's Field Yates has the New York Jets trading pick No. 7 to the New York Giants for pick No. 1 and taking Indiana Hoosiers junior QB Fernando Mendoza (6-foot-5, 225 pounds). The QB — who leads the FBS in touchdown passes (33) — was named a 2025 Heisman finalist after leading Indiana to its first Big Ten title since 1967. 

Manning may have a higher ceiling than Mendoza. Elite quarterbacking runs in his family. His uncles Peyton and Eli combined for four Super Bowl wins during their NFL careers. Also, his grandfather, Archie, was selected No. 2 overall by the New Orleans Saints in the 1971 draft.

Arch Manning's pedigree suggests he will eventually become an NFL star. But is he close to realizing his potential?

Why Arch Manning should stay in school

Arch Manning has room to grow as a passer. In 12 games in 2025, he has completed 61.4 percent of his passes. (This season, the FBS average for completion percentage is 62.6 percent, via Sports Reference.) That figure pales in comparison to past No. 1 picks. 

Tennessee Titans rookie QB Cam Ward completed 67.2 percent of his passes in his final season with the Miami Hurricanes in 2024. Chicago Bears second-year QB Caleb Williams completed 68.6 percent of his attempts in his last season with the Southern California Trojans in 2023. 

Mendoza ranks sixth in the FBS in completion percentage (71.5 percent). You get the point. To be QB1 in the draft, a prospect must display elite accuracy. 

Experience is another concern for Arch Manning. In three seasons with Texas, the QB has started 14 games. Most NFL teams want a passer to have roughly 25 starts under his belt when he enters the draft.

Underclassmen have until Jan. 14 to declare for the draft. (Players who are playing the College Football Playoff National Championship have until Jan. 23.) During National Signing Day, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian implied that Arch Manning has no plans to do so.

Texas plays the Michigan Wolverines in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl on Dec. 31. There, scouts can see why Arch Manning could be a future No. 1 pick, just not in 2026. Waiting one more season to turn pro would be the right decision for the QB, even if he has a better outlook than any passer in the upcoming class.