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Ranking Aces expansion draft risks for 2026, from low to high
Candice Ward-Imagn Images

ESPN’s early 2026 expansion draft projection gives Las Vegas a useful reality check. It doesn’t threaten the championship core. It forces a hard look at the bench.

Aces games at Michelob ULTRA Arena revolve around stars. Championships depend on the sixth and seventh options.

If an expansion team grabs one trusted role player, the Aces could spend 2026 searching for playoff minutes that can’t be replaced at the deadline.

If the league limits teams to five protected players, Las Vegas faces a real decision. Protect contract certainty or protect playoff trust. Either way, the margins matter most.

How to read this board

Expansion teams start from zero, so they chase two things first: players they can control and players who can fill a role right away.

That’s why the box score can point one way while the draft board points another. Production matters, but control and fit drive the decisions.

Lowest risk: Dana Evans

Dana Evans produced like a real rotation guard in 2025, averaging 6.6 points and 2.2 assists in 17.7 minutes per game. She also shot 36.6 percent from 3.

However, she’s headed toward unrestricted free agency. An expansion team could draft her and still lose her quickly, which limits her value in this format.

“Dana is our battery,” A’ja Wilson told The Washington Post after Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. “She makes us play at a different pace.”

Low risk: Megan Gustafson

Megan Gustafson played 11.3 minutes per game in 20 games, averaging 3.0 points and shooting 33.3 percent from 3.

Spacing from a big matters, and Gustafson provides that. Still, her free agency status reduces how much control an expansion team could have.

“She brings us size, shooting, rebounding,” Becky Hammon told The Cedar Rapids Gazette. “She does a lot of little things well.”

Low to medium risk: Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

Cheyenne Parker-Tyus represents the size swing. Expansion teams always look for frontcourt size they can develop.

Her 2025 sample was small, two regular-season games with 7.0 minutes and 8.0 points per game. The upside is real. The certainty isn’t.

“She’s a very skilled player and has a great feel for the game,” Aces president Nikki Fargas said last February.

Medium risk: Kiah Stokes

Kiah Stokes offers the cleanest plug-and-play role on this list. She appeared in 40 games, averaged 12.9 minutes and grabbed 3.6 rebounds.

If an expansion team wants defense, screening and rebounding without touches, Stokes fits immediately.

“She has pro practice habits, just a pro through and through,” Hammon told CT Insider after an Aces practice in May.

Highest risk: Aaliyah Nye or Kierstan Bell

This decision comes down to who Las Vegas protects.

Aaliyah Nye brings contract control. She played 44 games, averaged 15.3 minutes and scored 3.8 points in a steady bench role. If exposed, she’s an appealing target.

“She gets minutes because she plays hard,” Hammon told Sports Illustrated in June. “Her effort is there every time.”

Kierstan Bell brings playoff trust. She played 35 games, averaged 12.2 minutes and scored 4.2 points, earning more time in high-leverage moments.

If exposed, Bell’s age and two-way potential fit exactly what expansion teams want. She can help now and still grow.

“(Bell) was a natural fit. I think she knows our system the best,” Hammon told the Las Vegas Review-Journal in August after inserting Bell into the starting lineup.

A subtle but real risk for Las Vegas

Las Vegas is unlikely to lose its core in an expansion draft. The bigger risk sits one layer down.

If an expansion team strips away the Aces’ trust layer, the one built through playoff experience, replacing it may take a full season.

That’s the part you can’t buy at the deadline.

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This article first appeared on Dice City Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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