Ty Simpson or five-star Keelon Russell? CFP result could force Alabama’s QB decision

ESPN NFL Draft analyst Matt Miller recently gave Simpson a first-round grade but cautioned the junior quarterback "has seen his play stagnate in the past month.

"A big playoff run could push him into declaring for the 2026 draft," Miller added.

That would be the best-case scenario for all involved. However, it's just as likely Alabama is left with a difficult decision heading into the 2026 season.

To Brugler's point, here's a look at Simpson's splits from his first eight games compared to the past five, beginning after the team's Week 10 bye:

With a non-existent rushing attack, No. 9 Alabama (10-3, 7-1 in SEC) needs Simpson at his best to have a chance of beating Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2), which has its own concerns on offense but is one of the country's best defensive teams.

Unless Simpson turns back the clock to September and October, it could be in his best interest that he returns to college. The question, then, becomes if that's at Alabama.

Alabama could risk losing Russell, the No. 2 overall recruit of the 2025 class, to the transfer portal if Simpson stays. The Crimson Tide may also have a higher ceiling with Russell, who has dual-threat traits that would open up the team's rushing attack.

The situation echoes Alabama’s 2017 decision, when Nick Saban benched Jalen Hurts for freshman Tua Tagovailoa in the national championship game. Will head coach Kalen DeBoer face a similar issue if the offense struggles Friday night?

Simpson can ease concerns about his play with a big game against Oklahoma, which would give him more fuel to declare for the 2026 draft. A rough performance might be all Alabama needs to look elsewhere for its starter next season. Either way, Simpson's days as the Tide's quarterback may be numbered.