Five predictions for the remainder of 2025-26 NBA season

As the NBA calendar flips to 2026, the league enters a new year with new possibilities. With that in mind, here are five predictions that will shape how this season is remembered.

1. New York Knicks win the NBA championship

A year ago, the Knicks were running on fumes. Their bench ranked last in scoring, the starters lived at 35-plus minutes, and by the time the playoffs arrived the mileage showed. They still reached the Eastern Conference finals, but Indiana exposed familiar flaws: thin depth and defensive stress around the Jalen Brunson-Karl-Anthony Towns pairing.

New coach Mike Brown has loosened the offense without losing structure, getting Brunson off the ball earlier and adding more motion. The front office stabilized the bench with Jordan Clarkson, Landry Shamet and second-year guard Tyler Kolek. Mitchell Robinson’s offensive rebounding is generating extra possessions and open threes, and the Knicks just won the NBA Cup with serious depth. That’s what real contenders look like in January.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder are upset in the playoffs

Oklahoma City still owns one of the league’s best records, but December revealed a pressure point. The Thunder lost three times in a week and a half to San Antonio, including a Christmas Day defeat that punctured the aura of inevitability they carried early in the season.

When teams load up on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and force the ball out of his hands, Oklahoma City’s offense can stall. The Thunder remain deep, disciplined and elite defensively, but their scoring hierarchy is narrow. San Antonio showed bodies at Shai, limited transition chances and lived with the results. It worked.

Oklahoma City is good enough to win another title, but its postseason path may hinge on matchups more than expected.

3. Nikola Jokic wins his fourth MVP

Seven-time All-Star. Seven-time All-NBA. Three-time MVP. NBA champion. Finals MVP. Nikola Jokic has already built a Hall of Fame résumé, but this season underscores his quiet dominance.

Jokic doesn’t overwhelm opponents with speed or vertical force. He overwhelms them with decision-making. Teams send help, switch matchups and alter coverages, and he keeps making the same reads. He doesn’t rush possessions or force shots. He takes what’s available, possession after possession, until games tilt in the Denver Nuggets’ favor. A fourth MVP would formally place Jokic among the game’s all-time greats.

4. Portland Trail Blazers make the playoffs

Eighteen months ago, Portland was dead last in the West, a punchline with 21 wins and no direction. Now, the Trail Blazers look like one of the league’s most credible turnaround stories.

That shift starts with Deni Avdija. He's become the engine of Portland’s offense, moving from breakout to centerpiece and scoring at volume. The defense followed. Center Donovan Clingan anchors the paint, and his offensive rebounding has kept Portland competitive despite poor outside shooting.

The Blazers still have flaws, and coaching stability remains unresolved. But they defend, rebound, and have a closer. Portland no longer looks like a rebuilding team. It looks like a playoff team.

5. San Antonio Spurs become a bona fide championship contender

Victor Wembanyama is the obvious center of gravity in San Antonio. His decisions are quicker, his handle tighter, and his attacks more decisive. He initiates offense from the elbow, punishes switches and draws help that collapses defenses before they can recover.

What elevates the Spurs is the structure around him. Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper provide size and creation. Luke Kornet stabilizes non-Wembanyama minutes. The defense is disciplined and aggressive. San Antonio has already made life difficult for the defending champion Thunder, winning all three matchups this season. If the door is open, there’s no reason the Spurs can’t walk through it this season.