Why Fernando Mendoza to Raiders in 2026 NFL Draft may not be a lock

The Las Vegas Raiders taking Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza in the 2026 NFL Draft is a lock, right? Not so fast. 

The Raiders (2-14) lost 34-10 to the New York Giants (3-13) at home on Sunday, putting them in a position to land the No. 1 pick in the draft. If they lose to the Kansas City Chiefs (6-10) in Week 18 at home, they secure it. With that selection, Vegas could certainly target a replacement for QB Geno Smith, who has tossed a league-leading 17 interceptions in 16 starts.

As of Monday, NFL Mock Draft Database projects that the Raiders will take 2025 Heisman winner Mendoza with pick No. 1. Even so, Sports Illustrated NFL insider Albert Breer believes Vegas won't rule out selecting Oregon Ducks QB Dante Moore if the third-year sophomore declares for the draft before the deadline on Jan. 23.

Albert Breer explains why he believes Raiders aren't all-in on Fernando Mendoza 

"I'm not 100% convinced [the Raiders' pick] will be Indiana's Fernando Mendoza," wrote Breer in his Monday column. "I will say it wouldn't surprise me at all if he is, and he seems like a great kid, and one you can bet on. I'm just not sure at this early juncture whether he'll go ahead of Oregon's Dante Moore (should Moore turn down whatever Phil Knight's offering him to stay in Eugene)."

Despite the potential offers from Nike co-founder Knight, the Oregon standout could be tempted to enter the 2026 draft, scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. With the QB class looking weaker than it did during preseason, that increases his chances of being a top pick. Moore (6-foot-3, 206 pounds) and Mendoza (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) are the only QBs ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. lists on his updated top-25 board.  

Dante Moore-Fernando Mendoza question is a tough one to answer for Raiders

The Mendoza-Moore question is the classic upside versus pro-ready debate. The Indiana star, of course, is more experienced. 

Mendoza has played in 33 games in three seasons with the California Golden Bears and Indiana, completing 68.1% of his passes for 7,692 yards, 63 touchdown passes and 22 interceptions. Moore, meanwhile, has played in 27 games in three seasons with the UCLA Bruins and Oregon, completing 65.4% of his passes for 4,705 yards, 39 TD passes and 17 interceptions. 

However, Mendoza turns 23 on Oct. 1, while Moore turns 21 on May 24. Considering their ages, the Oregon star may have a higher ceiling. It certainly appears he has more tools than Mendoza, a traditional pocket passer. 

"Moore can throw from different arm angles with precision and deliver strikes while rolling either right or left out of the pocket," wrote Kiper. "He can scramble a bit, too." 

Raiders fans may not like it, but the team could let Smith (who's on a two-year, $75M deal) start the 2026 season, giving Moore time to learn.

Moore and Mendoza play in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on New Year's Day. The No. 5 Ducks (12-1) play the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1) in the Orange Bowl at noon ET (ESPN). No. 1 Indiana (13-0), meanwhile, faces the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) in the Rose Bowl at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

Raiders scouts should watch both games closely. It could help them determine which QB is the better fit for the franchise, which hasn't made the playoffs since the 2021 season.