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Why Joe Brady hire is an ominous sign for Bills' immediate future
Joe Brady. Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Why Joe Brady hire is an ominous sign for Bills' immediate future

The Buffalo Bills' idea of a big change is to remain in house.

On Tuesday, the Bills concluded their coaching search after the firing of nine-year head coach Sean McDermott on Jan. 19, landing on Joe Brady, who's been with the organization since 2022 and has spent the past two seasons as offensive coordinator after being promoted on an interim basis in 2023.

The uninspiring hire is a troubling omen for Buffalo's immediate future.

Promoting coaches rarely works

From 2011-25, nine franchises promoted from within either an offensive or defensive coordinator to full-time head coach. Of those coaches, Jason Garrett and Todd Bowles are the only ones with a winning record. Bowles is the only one with a playoff victory.

Here's a look at the unimpressive company Brady now finds himself amongst:

YEAR
TEAM
COACH
PREV. JOB
W
L
HC SEASONS
2025
DAL
Brian Schottenheimer
OC
7
9
1*
2022 HOU Lovie Smith DC 3 13 1
2022 NO Dennis Allen DC 18 25 2+
2022 TB Todd Bowles DC 35 33 4*
2019 CLE Freddie Kitchens OC/RBs 6 10 1
2016 NYG Ben McAdoo OC 13 15 1+
2016 TB Dirk Koetter OC 19 29 3
2012 KC Romeo Crennell DC 2 14 1
2011 DAL Jason Garrett OC/Asst. HC 80 64 9
2011 MIN Leslie Frazier DC 16 29 3
2011 OAK Hue Jackson OC 8 8 1

The 11 promoted coaches combined for a 207-249-3 (.454) record after being named to the full-time role. Of the nine that have since been fired, they averaged 2.4 full seasons, with five not making it to end of their second year.

The shortsighted moves are often made as a means of maintaining continuity, with the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings staying in-house after successful runs under their previous head coaches. None were able to replicate past triumphs.

It's easy to argue all would have been better closing those previous chapters and bringing in fresh leadership, and it might not be long until that same sentiment attaches itself to Buffalo.

After firing McDermott over the team's playoff shortcomings, it's a wild bet that his hand-picked offensive coordinator will be the answer to the Bills' woes. 

The hire is even more curious after owner Terry Pegula blamed the coaching staff for the team selecting underperforming second-year wideout Keon Coleman at No. 33 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft during a truly bonkers news conference

Bolder change was needed, but Buffalo instead erred on the side of caution. Based on how that's worked for others in recent history, the Bills have may already sealed their 2026 fate.

Eric Smithling

Eric Smithling is a writer based in New Orleans, LA, whose byline also appears on Athlon Sports. He has been with Yardbarker since September 2022, primarily covering the NFL and college football, but also the NBA, WNBA, men’s and women’s college basketball, NHL, tennis and golf. He holds a film studies degree from the University of New Orleans

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