Cavaliers' high-risk trade for James Harden might not help them in the playoffs

The Cleveland Cavaliers should be going all-in to win an NBA title this year. The player they got for the all-in push is a more questionable decision.

The Cavaliers traded 26-year-old Darius Garland to the Los Angeles Clippers for 36-year-old, 11-time All-Star James Harden. The move gets the Cavaliers an all-time great to pair with MVP candidate Donovan Mitchell, but one who has been far from an all-time great in the postseason.

James Harden's addition could pay off in the short term

Harden may be a decade older than Garland, but he's been far more productive this season. He's scoring 25.4 points per game and 8.1 assists for a resurgent Clippers team that went 15-4 in the last 19 games Harden has played. He also played 44 out of 47 games before the Clippers sat him in advance of the trade.

That might be the crucial factor for the Cavaliers, who haven't had Garland for 25 of their 51 games this season. He also missed four of their nine playoff games with a toe injury last season, with another toe injury keeping him out for the next three weeks.

Is Harden more valuable than Garland for the next four years? Probably not. But is Harden more valuable to the Cavaliers for the next four months, with Mitchell in his prime and the Eastern Conference wide open? Probably.

Cleveland's injuries prompted the James Harden trade

It's not just Garland's injuries that plagued the Cavaliers this season. They've been without starting small forward Max Strus all season, who suffered a Jones fracture in his foot. Knee injuries have sapped Lonzo Ball's athleticism and effectiveness, while Craig Porter Jr. has been solid but averages just 4.8 points.

Mitchell has been carrying the offense with 28.9 PPG and the highest usage rate of his four seasons in Cleveland. Harden will take some of that offensive burden off Mitchell, while providing more size than the 6-foot-1 Garland. Even if in the playoffs, he's often fallen short.

James Harden is a wild card in the playoffs

For his career, Harden averages 22.5 points, 6.5 assists and 5.5 rebounds in the playoffs. He's played 173 playoff games, the equivalent of more than two extra seasons. While his averages are solid, Harden's inconsistency has hurt him in the biggest postseason moments.

During the 2012 NBA Finals, Harden scored in single digits in three of the five games. In the 2015 Western Conference Finals, Harden committed 12 turnovers in the climactic game. In 2017, Harden shot 2-of-11 with six turnovers in an elimination game loss against a San Antonio Spurs team missing Kawhi Leonard. In 2018, he went 2-of-13 from three-point range in a Game 7 loss to the Golden State Warriors.

In 2023, Harden scored nine points in a Philadelphia 76ers Game 7 loss, and seven points in the Clippers' Game 7 loss last season. In between, he put up seven points in a 2024 loss to the Dallas Mavericks.

It may be enough that Harden lets Mitchell stay fresh enough to take over at the ends of games. The Cavs still have other weapons in Evan Mobley, who should feast off Harden's passes, and second-year sensation Jaylon Tyson (14 points, 47.3 3P%).

But for a move that cost Cleveland a two-time All-Star, anything less than the NBA Finals is a failure — and Harden hasn't made it there since 2012. The Cavs are taking a big gamble on a player who has failed in the postseason too many times.