Texas Tech dealt probable fatal blow to national title hopes with JT Toppin injury

Toppin is Texas Tech's undoubted star, ranking fourth in KenPom's player of the year rankings. The 2024-25 Big 12 Player of the Year was excellent in last year's NCAA Tournament and would have once again been one of the top players in this season's field. In 2025, Toppin notched a double-double in all four tourney games while pushing Texas Tech to the Elite Eight, averaging 19.3 points, 11 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game.

At 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, the Red Raiders don't have a player of Toppin's size and skillset to plug into the lineup. They'll have to rely heavily on sophomore guard Christian Anderson to lead the way the rest of the season. He's averaging 19 points and leads the Big 12 in assists (7.6 per game), though those distribution numbers might fall without Toppin as his running mate. 

Few players are as important to their team's success as Toppin, and with remaining regular-season games at No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones (23-3, 10-3 in Big 12) and No. 23 BYU Cougars (19-6, 7-5 in Big 12), Texas Tech (19-7, 9-4 in Big 12) will get a feel for how competitive they can be against high-end opponents without their best player before the Big 12 tournament begins on March 10.

Toppin's season-ending injury has threatened to derail Texas Tech's season. Less than a week ago, following a win over then-No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (23-2, 10-2 in Big 12), the program looked like a viable national champion contender. But with one injury, the Red Raiders' outlook has taken a debilitating turn for the worse.