Fernando Mendoza, Arvell Reese facing different levels of certainty in 2026 NFL Draft 

Many expect Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza to go No. 1 overall in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft. He's in line to be the next quarterback of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Nothing is ever a given in the NFL Draft, though. Anything can happen. That includes Mendoza slipping a bit or even the Raiders trading out of the No. 1 spot.

With that said, it is worth noting that Mendoza just moved up one spot on the new consensus player rankings from The Athletic.

As Austin Mock explained, the board "combines rankings from a wide range of experts to identify how the top prospects are viewed relative to the rest of the class."

In the last rankings from Jan. 20, Ohio State Buckeyes EDGE Arvell Reese was the consensus top prospect on the board.

Ohio State Buckeyes EDGE Arvell Reese presents questions for interested NFL teams 

Something changed over the course of the last month, though, because now it seems that Mendoza is almost assuredly going to be the No. 1 overall pick.

Perhaps that's because there are some questions about the type of player Reese can be at the NFL level. He has Micah Parsons-like upside, but he also comes with some uncertainty.

So much so that Mock is not even sure Reese will be the first defensive player taken off the board. Presumably, that would be at No. 2 overall to the New York Jets.

"Though the Ohio State standout could be an edge rusher in the NFL, some have him slotted as an off-ball linebacker — and that’s why he may slip behind some of his defensive counterparts," Mock wrote. "Some teams simply won’t want to invest a high draft pick on a player who may play off the ball."

Interestingly enough, Reese is still No. 2 on the consensus board, so the overwhelming majority of experts clearly feel good about his upside. It is interesting to see this dichotomy at the top of the draft, though. 

Mendoza seems to be a lock. Reese, on the other hand, could hypothetically go anywhere in the top 10.