
The Kansas Jayhawks could be in store for another boom-or-bust March.
On Saturday, the Associated Press No. 8 team in the country suffered a stunning 16-point home loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats (15-12, 7-7 in Big 12), 84-68, the program's largest against an unranked opponent in 53 years. The defeat came hours after Kansas was named a preliminary 3-seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
As with their other recent tourney appearances, Saturday showed that, as talented as the Jayhawks are, they could easily see another early exit this March.
Over the past six NCAA Tournaments dating back to the 2018-19 season, Kansas has lost in the first weekend five times, including a first-round exit a season ago, while winning the fourth national title in program history during its 2022 appearance.
That either/or scenario could easily play itself out again next month. Per college basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa, the Jayhawks rank ninth in win quality, while Saturday's loss should knock them down to 30th in loss quality, a sign they're more likely to play up or down to the level of their competition than other championship contenders.
The issue with Kansas's resume continues to be their losses.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) February 21, 2026
They are 9th in Win Quality at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ, but will drop to around 30th in Loss Quality after today's L at home to Cincinnati pic.twitter.com/BJiendouOt
Kansas trailed by as many as 19 in the stunning loss to Cincinnati and was out-rebounded 40-29. Its defense was arguably most concerning. The Bearcats don't have a great offense, entering the day No. 273 in scoring (72.3 points per game). But they often got what they wanted against the Jayhawks.
Senior forward Baba Miller got inside the paint with ease early as part of a quick eight points, with Kansas offering little interior resistance.
Baba finds his way to the cup.
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 21, 2026
CBS pic.twitter.com/q5rFU9BXo9
A game-high 8 points early for Baba.
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 21, 2026
CBS pic.twitter.com/OLxmAM4RbN
The Jayhawks were even worse defending the three-point line, often too slow to close on attempts, giving multiple Bearcats shooters clean looks.
Big man range.
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 21, 2026
CBS pic.twitter.com/DgQRYBI9wI
Day Day.
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 21, 2026
CBS pic.twitter.com/5g35vwBiu7
Left Moo open.
— Cincinnati Men’s Hoops (@GoBearcatsMBB) February 21, 2026
CBS pic.twitter.com/tDaQrU7SIr
That's the type of effort that will get a team beat by either a hungrier mid-major champ or trending power conference at-large team during the first weekend of March Madness.
Kansas also can't rely on star freshman guard Darryn Peterson, who played 32 minutes Saturday but has overall been an inconsistent presence, even pulling himself from a recent win over Oklahoma State after experiencing cramping.
The Jayhawks have lost two of their last three — both by double-digits — and are projected to lose their next two against the Houston Cougars (23-3, 11-2 in Big 12) and Arizona Wildcats (24-2, 11-2 in Big 12), according to KenPom. Kansas is trending downward, and things could get rockier ahead of the NCAA Tournament.
For a team with as much talent as Kansas has, it could easily contend for a national title. But Saturday was a reminder that it might just as easily be headed for another quick, disappointing ending.
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