Bubble watch: Assessing 10 teams' cases as men's CBB regular season winds down

The college basketball regular season is winding down, but several teams remain on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

With Selection Sunday less than three weeks away, here's a closer look at 10 bubble teams, along with the case for and against each receiving an automatic bid.

Auburn Tigers (15-12, 6-8 in SEC)

Case for: Auburn has played the most difficult schedule in the country, according to KenPom's adjusted net rating. It also has five Quad 1 wins, as many as teams such as Tennessee, North Carolina and NC State, ones on much steadier ground ahead of Selection Sunday. A No. 33 NET ranking and a No. 34 in KenPom also suggest the Tigers are good enough to qualify for the field.

Case against: It isn't just that Auburn has lost 10 Quad 1 games; it's how some have come. The Tigers lost by an average of 29 points to Michigan, Arizona and Purdue and have also been simply mediocre against the SEC, which isn't as strong as a season ago when it set the record for most NCAA Tournament teams.

California Golden Bears (19-8, 7-7 in ACC)

Case for: One of the country's top three-point shooting teams, Cal has wins over UCLA, North Carolina and Miami on its resume. Overall, its 4-5 record against Quad 1 opponents stands toe-to-toe with others on the bubble.

Cast against: The Golden Bears are a troubling 1-3 against Quad 2 opponents and lag behind in NET rankings at No. 59. Cal's non-conference schedule is also a concern, with ESPN ranking it the 324th hardest. 

New Mexico Lobos (21-6, 12-4 in Mountain West)

Case for: Eric Olen, hired to replace Richard Pitino last offseason, has done an excellent job with one of the country's least experienced rosters. The Lobos are the second-ranked Mountain West team in NET (No. 43 overall), a positive sign for a conference that received four bids last season.

Case against: New Mexico's strength of schedule is No. 99 overall, and it's only 2-4 in Quad 1 games, with its wins coming on the road against VCU (No. 45 NET) and Grand Canyon (No. 75 NET), which is one spot away from classifying as a Quad 2 result.

Ohio State Buckeyes (17-10, 9-7 in Big Ten)

Case for: The Buckeyes are No. 36 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rating, thanks largely to their offense, which ranks 24th. Their nine conference wins are also respectable, with the Big Ten standing as the country's deepest conference.

Case against: 0-9. That's Ohio State's record versus Quad 1 competition. It's hard to justify the Buckeyes' placement with such an alarming record, which could make a win over Iowa or Purdue over their next two games vital to their at-large case.

San Diego State Aztecs (18-8, 12-4 in Mountain West)

Case for: San Diego State is one of the country's top defensive teams, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency. The 2023 national semifinalists have held opponents to 39.6 percent shooting while posting the country's seventh-highest block rate (15.8 percent).

Case against: Blowout losses by 63 points combined to likely 1-seeds Michigan and Arizona showed the Aztecs aren't close to the best this season, and a current two-game losing streak in conference play has them trending in the wrong direction.

Seton Hall Pirates (19-9, 9-8 in Big East)

Case for: Like the Aztecs, the Pirates rely on a stout defense that ranks first in block rate (19.1 percent) and third in steal rate (14.3 percent). Overall, Seton Hall ranks 10th in points allowed (64.5 allowed) in Division I.

Case against: Seton Hall is an eyesore offensively, keeping it from notching a signature Big East win. Although with the remaining games against Connecticut and St. John's, that could soon change.

TCU Horned Frogs (17-10, 7-7 in Big 12)

Case for: Wins over the defending champion Florida Gators and possible 1-seed Iowa State Cyclones rival any collection in the country. TCU also played Michigan extremely tough in a four-point home loss in November.

Case against: TCU is one of the most perplexing teams in the country, with some of its losses hard to explain. The Horned Frogs fell to New Orleans (13-15, 11-8 in Southland) in the season-opener and have also lost to Notre Dame (12-15, 3-11 in ACC) and Utah (10-17, 2-12 in Big 12), establishing a concerning lack of consistency that could be disqualifying.

USC Trojans (18-9, 7-9 in Big Ten)

Case for: USC started the season hot, beginning the season 8-0 and winning the Maui Invitational with three wins in three days in November. The past seven teams to win the Maui Invitational have reached the NCAA Tournament, with Notre Dame (2017) the most recent to miss the field.

Case against: The Trojans have lost three in a row, including by 36 to Illinois last Wednesday. KenPom projects them to lose their four remaining regular-season games, which would run the skid to seven and place them on thin ice.

VCU Rams (21-7, 12-3 in Atlantic 10)

Case for: The Rams are No. 45 in NET and No. 44 in KenPom, putting them ahead of others on the bubble such as Seton Hall, USC and Cal. VCU held up well against power conference opponents, defeating Virginia Tech by 18 while also only losing by six on the road against NC State.

Case against: The program squandered two chances of improving its resume in conference play by being swept by Saint Louis. At this point, VCU likely must win out in the regular season and have a big showing in the A10 tournament to earn an at-large bid.

Virginia Tech Hokies (18-10, 7-8 in ACC)

Case for: The Hokies are part of a resurgent ACC. A triple-overtime win over Virginia is the crowning achievement on their schedule, while a more recent 10-point win over Clemson gave them a second Quad 1 victory.

Case against: Overall, Virginia Tech is just 2-8 versus Quad 1. It also lost each of its two toughest non-conference games by double-digits.