NBA predictions: Cavaliers surge, Pistons reach NBA Finals — but fall short of a title

We've made it through the marathon portion of the NBA calendar and are now onto the final sprint of the regular season. 

Here are five bold predictions for the final 25 or so regular-season games — and beyond — to get you ready. Records and statistics are through Sunday.

1) The Cleveland Cavaliers are on a tear that will make them the clear Eastern Conference favorite heading into the playoffs

The Cavaliers (36-22) are 5–1 since acquiring James Harden and already beginning to hum like last season’s 64-win machine. Harden’s postseason shortcomings are well-documented, but he remains a regular-season force — an engine for winning and high-octane offense, even at 36.

His presence and passing takes pressure off superstar guard Donovan Mitchell, whose usage rate (32.7) is the highest of his tenure in Cleveland and third highest of his career. Harden's elite pick-and-roll game and lob passing should also unlock Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — one of the best lob threats in the league — in ways we haven't seen yet. Get ready for the Cavs to roll through the second half of the season.

2) But it will be the Detroit Pistons who ultimately make the NBA Finals

If this prediction is making you do a double take, you're not alone — the Pistons haven't won a playoff series since 2008. But Detroit has several things working in its favor. First, they qualify under Phil Jackson's fabled "40-20 rule," which holds that a team must win 40 games before losing 20 to win a championship. Only the Thunder, Spurs and possibly the Celtics are in that club this season. 

Second, the Pistons are arguably the most physical and bruising team in the league. They have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA (108.3) — a huge advantage if the playoffs are officiated anything like last year's "prison ball" rules. 

And lastly, there's a real case that the Pistons have the best player in every series until the Finals: Cade Cunningham, who is playing like a fringe MVP candidate (25.5 PPG, 9.8 APG and 5.8 RPG on 46.3-33.8-81 shooting splits).

3) Anthony Edwards is about to go on a tear that vaults him into the MVP and best-player-in-the-world conversation

The Minnesota Timberwolves' superstar winning the All-Star Game MVP should serve as a warning to the rest of the league. He is already one of the best handful of players in the NBA, averaging 29.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG and 3.6 APG on 49.5-40-79.1 shooting splits. But he seems poised to take his game to another level entirely. 

Case in point: In his first game back from the break, Edwards dropped 40 points, making numerous clutch shots, to carry the Timberwolves past the Mavericks. The second half is his coming-out party.

4) It will be the San Antonio Spurs who win the West and the NBA Championship

This is both a reflection of the Spurs' upward trajectory and the injury issues plaguing Western Conference contenders. San Antonio's Victor Wembanyama has come into his own and is completely healthy. He has the look and confidence of a young superstar ready to impose his will on playoff games in ways only a handful of Hall of Famers ever could. 

Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper form a relentless backcourt rotation that perfectly complements Wemby, while Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Luke Kornet and Julian Champagnie round out a frontcourt ready to support him all postseason long.

Elsewhere in the West, the Thunder appear to be wearing down after last year's title run and their 24-1 start. Jalen Williams can't stay healthy, and even reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is dealing with nagging issues. The Nuggets are the "Hamstring Injury Capital of America," with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson sidelined with soft-tissue injuries that are notoriously difficult to recover from at midseason. Meanwhile, the Rockets, despite a healthy and dominant season from Kevin Durant, will be without starting center Steven Adams for the rest of the season. 

Everything is opening up for the Spurs (40-16, second in the conference) to emerge from the West ahead of schedule.

5) The NBA's new anti-tanking rules (predictably) won't fix the problem

Commissioner Adam Silver's inner lawyer is dragging down the NBA. Whether it's a collective bargaining agreement that reads like the IRS tax code or forthcoming anti-tanking rules that will undoubtedly be unnecessarily complicated and full of exploitable loopholes, he keeps layering complexity on top of complexity. 

Keep it simple! If you want teams to stop tanking, stop incentivizing it. 

Here's the fix: 

• Every team in the league starts with one lottery ball; 
• The NBA Cup winner gets two bonus balls (giving them three total balls);
• The Cup runner-up gets one bonus ball (giving them two total balls); and
• A live lottery for every pick is held right after the Cup, so teams know the full draft order well before the trade deadline. 

This eliminates the incentive to tank, rewards Cup competition and lets the market sort itself out. Make it happen, Mr. Silver.