Why undefeated Miami (Ohio) may have to win out to punch NCAA Tournament ticket

It is hard to believe the lone remaining undefeated team in Division I men's college basketball this late in the season is the Associated Press No. 21 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks out of the MAC.

That is by no means a knock on the program or the conference as a whole. However, the MAC is traditionally a one-bid league for the NCAA Tournament, and Miami (Ohio) has not even reached the Big Dance since the 2006-07 season, so this was not exactly on everyone's radar before the season began.

With that said, the RedHawks (28-0, 15-0 MAC) just defeated Eastern Michigan, 74-64, on Tuesday night to keep their undefeated season alive with only three regular-season games remaining. 

If they win out and enter Selection Sunday unblemished, Miami (Ohio) will be a lock as the automatic qualifier out of the MAC. If it loses one of its final three games or in the conference tournament, all of that work may ultimately not be rewarded.

Miami (Ohio) could be left out altogether with a loss

Traditionally, most teams with an undefeated record at this point in the season are top-five or top-10 and typically locks to be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the tournament. Miami (Ohio) is a much different case.

The RedHawks have played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country with zero games against Quad 1 opponents and only one against Quad 2. A balanced scoring attack with seven players averaging 10 or more points per game, led by sophomore guard Brant Byers (14.6 PPG) and senior guard Peter Suder (14.6 PPG), has been the key to their success, but it still may not be enough if they do not win out.

When you look at most of the teams on ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi's bubble, it is easy to make the case that each of them had more than enough opportunities against quality competition and simply did not do enough to earn their spot in the 68-team field. 

Teams like Auburn (15-13, 6-9 SEC) and Ohio State (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten) have faced much stiffer competition, but struggled against Quad 1 opponents. The Buckeyes, specifically, are 0-9 in such games, leaving them squarely on the bubble from here on out.

From struggles against Quad 2 opponents to poor schedules and missed opportunities in big-time moments, each of the teams on bubble watch are not safe by any means and should be worried.

One metric that could be in Miami (Ohio)'s favor is Wins Against Bubble (WAB), which calculates how the average bubble team would perform against another team's schedule. According to David Cobb of CBS Sports, the RedHawks had a WAB score of 2.16 before their most recent win over Eastern Michigan, which ranked 35th and recognizes them for having more than two victories than the average bubble team would against a similar schedule.

Miami (Ohio) has improved in every season under head coach Travis Steele, just missing out on the NCAA Tournament last season when it lost to Akron in the MAC Championship Game. Should they enter the NCAA Tournament undefeated, the RedHawks would only be the 21st team to ever do so and the fourth with at least 30 wins.

That alone speaks to how rare it is for a team to have the success that Miami (Ohio) is having. The pressure, though, is firmly on the program to remain undefeated because that will likely be its best — and likely only path — to qualifying for the NCAA Tournament.