NASCAR DuraMax Grand Prix preview: Favorite, underdog, top storylines

On Sunday, the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series will tackle the Circuit of The Americas road course in Austin, Texas, for the running of the DuraMax Grand Prix (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Here is everything you need to know before the green flag drops in the "Lone Star State."

Favorite: Shane van Gisbergen (+120, per DraftKings)

He may have only qualified 13th on Saturday, but don't expect van Gisbergen to stay there for long. As the winner of the last five road/street courses the series has visited, he has been the clear favorite each time left and right turns are a factor.

Should van Gisbergen pick back up where he left off one season ago, a sixth consecutive road course win would tie Hall of Famer Jeff Gordon for the most in series history. He may not be where he expected to begin the race, but the race win likely goes through van Gisbergen until proven otherwise.

Underdog: Alex Bowman (+5000, per DraftKings)

After finishing 40th (Daytona 500) and 23rd (EchoPark Speedway) to begin the season, Bowman sits 32nd in the standings going to COTA. Fortunately for him, relief could be on the way at statistically his best track.

In five starts, Bowman has never finished worse than ninth and was a runner-up in 2022. His 5.2 average finish at COTA is his best among all tracks with multiple starts. Despite his mediocre 16th-place starting position, don't sleep on Bowman despite his horrendous start to the season.

Tyler Reddick's pursuit of historic three-peat off to a good start

No one has had a better start to the season than Reddick, who enters COTA as the winner of the first two races. However, if he wins on Sunday, he would become the first driver with three consecutive wins to begin a season.

He could not have asked for a better start, earning his third pole in six COTA races on Saturday. As a past winner there in 2023, Reddick has an excellent shot to complete the historic trifecta and add his name to the record books.

Can anyone halt van Gisbergen's dominance?

If there are any drivers who are poised to unseat van Gisbergen from the top, look no further than the pole sitter, Reddick. 2022 COTA winner Ross Chastain is set to roll off second, while defending winner Christopher Bell starts eighth.

Rookie Connor Zilisch, who qualified a disappointing 25th, went toe-to-toe with van Gisbergen in the O'Reilly Auto Parts Series last season and impressed in his Cup debut at COTA last season before getting collected in a crash. Each of them could pose a threat to van Gisbergen if they put together a mistake-free race.

Notable drivers looking to climb out of early points deficit

After a pair of drafting-style tracks to begin the 2026 season, several of the sport's top drivers find themselves playing from behind. Two-time champions Kyle Larson (21st) and Kyle Busch (24th) are deep in the standings, while Denny Hamlin (27th), Bell (31st) and Bowman (32nd) are facing larger deficits.

With the season's first road course on deck and a change of scenery from the opening two weeks, maybe that is exactly what each of them needs to finally get a solid finish and put a slow start behind them.