NFL teams most likely to draft a QB in Round 1 and ones that might force it

This always happens. NFL teams rationalize quarterback value to themselves. Front offices convince themselves they have found something other people missed. The fan base goes along for the ride because otherwise, you admit you have no plan.

This year is different, though. Not because QB need is higher than usual (it never changes), but because the demand for a QB and the supply of players who truly belong in the first round do not quite match up.

The teams with no other choice

Let us start with the Las Vegas Raiders.

They need a quarterback. Not a project, not a competition, but a true starter. They pick high enough that there is no reason for them to get creative. Teams with their pick are usually going to take the shot on a QB who is at the top of the board, like Fernando Mendoza. You live with the consequences later.

The New York Jets are not much further behind, although they do not look the same at first glance. They have been there before, trying to work around the position and always circling back to the draft.

The Jets draft No. 2 and 16 in this draft, and if they keep that position, it is almost certain they are going to take a quarterback. While they likely will not do it with the No. 2 pick, speculation is running rampant that they will take Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at 16.

The team that might try to talk itself into it

The Cleveland Browns are not desperate for a quarterback, but they are not exactly set at the position, either. They operate in that uncomfortable middle ground, which can easily lead a team to convince itself it is one move away.

The teams that need to consider their future

The Pittsburgh Steelers do not necessarily have a glaring need, but they are a team worth monitoring. A lot of this hinges upon whether or not Aaron Rodgers returns. If a QB whom they like begins to slide, they are in a position where they could easily scoop him up and deal with the ramifications later.

The Los Angeles Rams could do the same thing. They are stable enough to have the luxury to be patient, but are more than willing to be aggressive in the first round if a QB offers long-term value. Much like Rodgers and the Steelers, Matthew Stafford is not getting any younger, and they have to start thinking about the future.

Is there enough to go around for everyone?

There likely are not enough quarterbacks to warrant all of the discussion that surrounds them.

That is the hidden anxiety that is simmering under the surface of this whole draft. Only one or two guys can likely be considered to belong at the top of the first round; the rest are a mix of projection and a little bit of convincing.

A need to get the position right

This is not a draft about the quantity of good quarterbacks; it is about the pressure that the quantity of need creates.

Eventually, a team somewhere in the middle of the first round will realize that passing up on a quarterback is riskier than reaching for one. Once that happens, it is going to domino. One move will turn into two, two into four and eventually there will be more than a few teams that make a move at quarterback.

Quarterback decisions define everything that comes after. For these teams, this is less about value on a board and more about finally getting the position right.