What do the numbers say about Dan Orlovsky's controversial Fernando Mendoza-Ty Simpson take?

The Alabama star only bests the Indiana standout in interceptions thrown. Mendoza tossed six, while Simpson threw five.

So, the debate is settled, right? No. Let's consider advanced stats, which show a QB's ability to play under pressure, something the ESPN analyst said Simpson is better at.

"When it comes to moments of panic and big throws, real NFL throws, I think it's clearly Ty Simpson," Orlovsky said. "...I would much rather have Ty."

Simpson, however, struggled under pressure throughout the season. Per Sports Info Solutions, his passer rating dropped from 118 to 65.7 under pressure in 2025. Mendoza's passer rating, meanwhile, dipped from 140.2 to 98.3. That's still not as drastic as Simpson's. 

Simpson did make more big-time throws than Mendoza. (Big-time throws are a metric Pro Football Focus uses to measure passes with high difficulty and high value.) Per the site, Simpson tied for 1st in BTTs (30) among 168 FBS QBs, while Mendoza tied for 19th (23). 

But for those who are now worried about Mendoza's ability to deliver in key moments, watch Indiana's 27-21 win over the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. That should tell you all you need to know about how Mendoza performs on the big stage. 

Simpson is capable of producing crucial throws, but he lacks the elite accuracy at all levels of the field to do it consistently. Take a look at their completion percentages below to see how the prospects compare (via PFF). Air yards measure the distance the ball travels through the air. 

Much of a QB's success in the NFL depends on landing spot. But that doesn't change that Mendoza looks like the more pro-ready prospect. 

The Las Vegas Raiders (who own pick No. 1 in the draft) should disregard Orlovsky's take and other analysts who strongly agree with it. The numbers say Mendoza is clearly QB1 in the class, so the AFC West team shouldn't be second-guessing itself in the weeks leading up to the draft (scheduled April 23-25 in Pittsburgh).