Bull vs. bear: The case for, against NHL's playoff locks, hopefuls

Vegas Golden Knights: 32-26-15 (.541 PT%), 79 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: The advanced metrics love the Knights, who are first in five-on-five high danger chances allowed per 60 minutes this season.

Pessimist: The Knights goaltending has been a disaster (30th in all situations save percentage since the Olympic break), while the shooting has gone cold (last in the NHL in all situations).

Edmonton Oilers: 36-28-9 (.555 PT%), 81 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: They remain one of the few teams with a nuclear-grade weapon in McDavid, who is playing at a 137-point pace in the 15 games since returning from the Olympics. 

Pessimist: The Oilers are under enormous pressure to deliver in the wake of McDavid's two-year "show me" contract extension, and their goaltending is collapsing under that weight. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers are second in the NHL in fewest high danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five since the Olympic break, yet they're 29th in save percentage in that same time frame.

Anaheim Ducks: 41-27-4 (.597 PT%), 86 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: They're fun, and short of something historic occurring in these final 10 games, they're a playoff lock. Anaheim's young nucleus led by Leo Carlsson (61 points in 60 games), Cutter Gauthier (63 points in 73 games) and Beckett Sennecke (55 points in 72 games) has fully arrived.

Pessimist: They're 30th in the NHL in five-on-five high danger chances against per 60 minutes, per Natural Stat Trick. Those numbers look even worse (last) since the Olympic break.

A historic wild-card battle

What's happening in the Eastern Conference is unprecedented, where multiple teams could break the record for most points recorded in a single season without making the playoffs.

New Jersey Devils: 37-32-2 (.535 PT%), 76 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: New Jersey is 9-5-0 since returning from the Olympic break, at least giving the team a path to keeping its season alive. Six of the eight teams it is chasing have a harder remaining strength of schedule, and the Devils will get the chance to play five games against five opponents they are directly chasing.

Pessimist: It probably is too little, too late. There's a chance 98 points won't be enough to earn the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference this season, meaning the Devils would need help from teams they're chasing in addition to winning their final 11 games. 

Washington Capitals: 36-28-9 (.555 PT%), 81 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: The Capitals have managed to get to this point despite missing one of their top centermen, Dubois, for 52 games this season. 

Pessimist: Dubois hasn't been overly effective even in the 21 games he's played for a Capitals team that acknowledged its chances were in the dirt when it traded a still effective and possible future Hall of Fame defenseman in John Carlson at the trade deadline.

Philadelphia Flyers: 35-24-12 (.577 PT%), 82 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: Philadelphia's long-shot gamble on turning former Calgary backup Daniel Vladar into a starter has gone well. Vladar has appeared in a career high 44 games and has a career high .907 save percentage at a time when league-wide save percentage is down.

Pessimist: The Flyers are 10-3-1 since the Olympic Break, but they let two points get away from them in a blowout loss in Philadelphia versus the Eastern Conference bottom-dwelling Rangers. Plus, six of their wins since returning from the break have come in either overtime or the shootout. That won't help them in any tiebreaking scenarios.

New York Islanders: 41-27-5 (.596 PT%), 87 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: The Islanders are 9-6-0 since the Olympic break and getting the third best team save percentage in all situations. 

Pessimist: Eleven of their last 15 games have been decided by one goal, and they've been fortunate to go 8-3 in those games. Defensively, they've been a little leaky in that stretch, 22nd in the NHL in high danger chances against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.

Detroit Red Wings: 39-25-8 (.597 PT%), 86 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: John Gibson (.911 save percentage this month) has still been good enough despite Detroit's annual March swoon (5-5-2 this month). Plus, star center Dylan Larkin is back from injury.

Pessimist: The damage might already be done. Larkin getting hurt hours after the trade deadline and missing seven critically important games didn't help. The Wings have also failed to stack points, going 1-3-2 in one-goal games since the break.

Ottawa Senators: 38-24-10 (.597 PT%), 86 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: Goaltender Linus Ullmark appears to have found his game after a lengthy leave of absence, with a .904 save percentage since returning to action on Jan. 31.

Pessimist: The Senators remain dead last in five-on-five save percentage this season.

Columbus Blue Jackets: 38-23-11 (.604 PT%), 87 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: Since Rick Bowness took over on Jan. 13, the Jackets are 19-4-4, best in the league in that stretch in both high danger chances allowed per 60 minutes at five-on-five and goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They haven't sacrificed offense as their blend of young stars and veterans have scored at the eighth highest rate per 60 minutes at five-on-five in that stretch.

Pessimist: They have the third most difficult strength of schedule remaining, including two games against Metropolitan-leading Carolina.

Pittsburgh Penguins: 36-20-16 (.611 PT%), 88 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: Pittsburgh survived a tough stretch without Sidney Crosby, going 5-3-3 in its first 11 games out of the Olympic break while he rehabbed an injury suffered in Canada's quarterfinal round win.

Pessimist: Both Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are battling injuries in this critical stretch run.

Boston Bruins: 40-24-8 (.611 PT%), 88 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: The Bruins superstar trio of winger David Pastrnak (90 points in 67 games), top defenseman Charlie McAvoy (55 points in 60 games and goalie Jeremy Swayman (28-15-4, .908 save percentage) are living up to the billing.

Pessimist: The Bruins have the most difficult strength of schedule remaining, with de facto playoff games against Columbus (twice), Philadelphia and New Jersey who are all desperate for wins.

Montreal Canadiens: 40-21-10 (.634 PT%), 90 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: They can score — fourth in five-on-five goals per 60 minutes and fourth in power play efficiency. 

Pessimist: Like Anaheim in the Western Conference, the Habs are an adventure. They are 25th in the NHL in high danger chances against per 60 minutes, per Natural Stat Trick.

The contenders

These teams aren't looking over their shoulder at this point, but a deep playoff run isn't a lock, either.

Minnesota Wild: 41-20-12 (.644 PT%), 94 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: Elite offensive talent, elite defensive talent, a coach who preaches defensive structure and at least one goaltender capable of carrying them on any given night.

Pessimist: They haven't won back-to-back games since the first week of March, and they're trending towards a nightmarish first-round matchup with the Dallas Stars where a seventh game would end in Dallas.

Buffalo Sabres: 44-21-8 (.658 PT%), 96 points, nine games remaining

Optimist: The Sabres are 35-11-4 since Thanksgiving. The stars have played like stars, the young players are rising and the goaltending collective of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Alex Lyon and Colten Ellis compliments each other well. 

Pessimist: The Sabres are middle of the road in controlling high danger chances (50.6 percent at five-on-five, 17th in the NHL per Natural Stat Trick) and won't bring much playoff experience to the table this April.

Tampa Bay Lightning: 44-21-6 (.662 PT%), 94 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: None of the Eastern Conference contenders will bring Tampa's experience level or blend of past and current success, with winger Nikita Kucherov (121 points in 67 games) on pace to lead the league in points for a third straight season. 

Pessimist: Defenseman and team captain Victor Hedman is taking a leave of absence, and it's not clear for how long. 

Dallas Stars: 43-18-11 (.674 PT%), 97 points, 10 games remaining

Optimist: The Stars are getting healthy in time for the postseason, unlike last season when Miro Heiskanen missed the first round. 

Pessimist: In addition to a likely difficult road, the Stars remain without star forward Roope Hintz (44 points in 53 games) who hasn't played since early March.

Carolina Hurricanes: 45-20-6 (.676 PT%), 96 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: They continue to accumulate points while star center Sebastian Aho appears to be on pace for his fourth 80-point season.

Pessimist: Carolina's goaltending is a concern again, but the path to the Eastern Conference Finals might be the underrated story of the spring. The Canes are likely to play one of the most difficult wild-card teams in the history of this format thanks to the depth of the race.

Colorado Avalanche: 48-13-10 (.746 PT%), 106 points, 11 games remaining

Optimist: The Avalanche are first in goals-for percentage and number one in five-on-five goals for per 60 minutes and five-on-five goals against per 60 minutes. They never seem down for long, following a middling 6-4-1 stretch with four consecutive road wins.

Pessimist: Colorado has never won a playoff series against Dallas (0-3) or Minnesota (0-1) in the Nathan MacKinnon era. They're going to play one of them if they take care of business in the opening round.