Hidden keys to victory for men's Final Four

The Final Four, which tips off on Saturday, features no shortage of star power and intriguing storylines.

As the college basketball world sets its sights on Indianapolis for this year's national semifinals, here are a couple of hidden keys we believe will help decide who advances to Monday's championship game.

South Region No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (28-8) vs. East No. 2 Connecticut Huskies (33-5) • 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

Offensive rebounding | Illinois and UConn each needed second-half comebacks to win their respective regional finals, with one being slightly more dramatic than the other.

The Illini overcame a modest four-point deficit to defeat their Big Ten rival Iowa Hawkeyes, 71-59, and earn their first Final Four berth since 2005. The Huskies, meanwhile, mounted an epic 19-point comeback against the East Region No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils, winning 73-72 on a three-pointer with 0.4 seconds remaining.

An under-the-radar aspect we're looking at for Saturday's game is which team controls the boards, particularly on the offensive end.

Per Stathead research, Illinois ranks first in the NCAA Tournament in offensive rebound rate (44.9 percent). Only one other team has crossed the 40 percent threshold, and that's the UCF Knights (44.2 percent) in a one-game sample size.

Forward David Mirkovic, one of three Illini named to the All-Regional team, is averaging 14.8 points and 11 rebounds (four offensive) per game during March Madness. Massive 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic has added 12 points and 6.3 rebounds (2.5 offensive) per game.

For a team that doesn't generate many turnovers — the Illini are last in Division I in defensive turnover rate (11.8 percent), according to KenPom — it's imperative for Illinois to maximize each possession. 

In a Nov. 28 game at Madison Square Garden, Connecticut held Illinois to a 31 percent offensive rebound rate in a 74-61 win. Forward Tarris Reed Jr., who had 27 rebounds in the round of 64, can neutralize the Illini's advantage. Stathead data shows a clear demarcation line for Illinois, which is 18-1 (.947) this season when its offensive rebound rate clears 36 percent. When below, the Illini are 10-7 (.588). 

West No. 1 Arizona Wildcats (36-2) vs. Midwest No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (35-3) • 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/HBO Max)

Does Arizona get to the foul line? | Saturday's second national semifinal is a true heavyweight bout. The winner will be favored entering Monday's championship game, as Arizona and Michigan have been the most impressive teams during the past two weeks, ranking first and second in net points, each winning its first four games by over 20 points per game. (h/t Stathead)

As dominant as both have been, the Wildcats and Wolverines reached the national stage in different ways.

Michigan has blown through its competition with a remarkably efficient offense. It's scored at least 90 points in each game and has a 65.3 percent effective field-goal rate, the second highest since the 1985 tournament expansion among teams with at least four tourney games. That only trails the 2015-16 Villanova Wildcats, who memorably won the national championship over the North Carolina Tar Heels on Kris Jenkins' three at the buzzer.

Arizona, which lives inside the arc, has made up for inconsistent shooting by getting to the line at an astronomical clip. Its 57.3 percent free-throw rate is the highest in March Madness. The Wildcats have averaged 33.3 free-throw attempts per game while sending opponents to the line an average of 15 times, and that type of discrepancy will make up for any shooting advantage Michigan might possess.