After struggles of recent No. 1 picks, Raiders adding Cousins is smart

Kirk Cousins. Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After considering struggles of recent No. 1 picks, Raiders adding Kirk Cousins as bridge QB for Fernando Mendoza is smart

By Clark Dalton | Last updated Apr 2, 2026 3:26 PM ET

The Las Vegas Raiders aren't planning to thrust Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, into the starting role during his rookie season.

The Raiders agreed to a deal with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins on Thursday, per his agent, Mike McCartney. The terms of the agreed contract are still being worked out.

Grabbing the four-time Pro Bowler as a bridge QB is wise for the Raiders. Most No. 1 overall draft picks don't prosper immediately.

Recent trends show it's better to have rookie QBs sit for a while, even if they're the No. 1 pick

Since 2020, five QBs have been taken No. 1 and subsequently been named their Week 1 starter. Each struggled. Take a look at their stats below.

QB	Starting record	Completion percentage	Touchdown passes/interceptions	QBR
Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow (2020)	2-7-1 (season-ending knee injury in Week 11)	264-of-404 pass attempts (65.3 percent, above average)	13 TD passes, five interceptions	48.5, below average
Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (2021)	3-14	359-of-602 pass attempts (59.6 percent, below average)	12 TD passes, 17 interceptions	39.1
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young (2023)	2-14	315-of-527 pass attempts (59.8 percent)	11 TD passes, 10 interceptions	34.1
Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams (2024)	5-12	351-of-562 pass attempts (62.5 percent)	20 TD passes, six interceptions	43.3
Tennessee Titans QB Cam Ward (2025)	3-14	323-of-540 pass attempts (59.8 percent)	15 TD passes, seven interceptions	33.2

The trend goes even further back than that. Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning went 3-13 in 16 starts and tossed a rookie-record 28 interceptions in his first season with the Indianapolis Colts in 1998.

"I watched the film and thought, 'That doesn't even look like me out there' ... 28 interceptions later, the work was done, that was my rookie year," Manning told San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle on a podcast in January.

Manning rebounded, and so have some of the other aforementioned QBs. Williams, Burrow and Lawrence have all won playoff games. Young, meanwhile, led the Panthers to the postseason last season.

Some passers, though, never recover from a difficult rookie season. See former QB David Carr, whom the Houston Texans selected No. 1 overall in 2002. After going 4-12 during his rookie season, Carr never threw more than 16 TD passes in five seasons with the Texans.

The Raiders can't afford to take that chance with 2025 Heisman winner Mendoza (6-foot-5, 236 pounds), who will need time to adjust to the NFL, despite leading the FBS in TD passes (41) last season. Adding Cousins could help Vegas avoid rushing and ruining the development of the talented passer.

Clark Dalton

Clark Dalton is a 2022 journalism graduate of the University of Texas at Austin. He gained experience in sports media over the past seven years — from live broadcasting and creating short films to podcasting and producing. In college, he wrote for The Daily Texan. He loves sports and enjoys hiking, kayaking and camping.

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