
Following a thrilling end to the Elite Eight on Sunday, the men's Final Four is officially upon us as one-seeds Michigan (35-3) and Arizona (36-2), two-seed Connecticut (33-5) and three-seed Illinois (28-8) are set to square off on Saturday.
Unlike previous editions of the Final Four when there is one clear Cinderella or mismatch on paper, each of the teams left standing have clear strengths that got them to this point.
Illinois may have the most losses of the bunch and Michigan might be without sophomore guard L.J. Cason, who tore his right ACL earlier this season. However, fans should be in for a treat when Saturday's action tips off in Indianapolis.
According to the Action Network's Evan Abrams, this would be the first time in at least 60 years that both semifinal lines close under two. Illinois and Michigan are both favored by 1.5 points in their games against UConn and Arizona, respectively, which could be a sign of a drama-filled night on Saturday.
Both Final Four spreads are now down to -1.5, with Illinois and Michigan favored...
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) April 1, 2026
This would be first time in 60+ yrs both semifinal lines close under -2. Can't wait for Saturday. https://t.co/OpvTMAQs1g pic.twitter.com/lQ6neebE9k
Those lines remain unchanged as tipoff quickly approaches, further highlighting how evenly matched the Final Four games are coming in. For many, Illinois is likely viewed as the least likely team to win the national title, but don't count the Fighting Illini out.
This may be Illinois' first Final Four trip since 2005, but head coach Brad Underwood's team is a force offensively. Not only are the Fighting Illini the top team in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, but they only average 8.9 turnovers per game and typically do not beat themselves.
A convincing tournament run with wins by at least 10 points in each game shows how dangerous Illinois can be, although it needed a double-digit second-half comeback to outlast Big Ten foe Iowa, 71-59, in the Elite Eight.
An 74-61 loss to UConn earlier this season indicates this will be a challenge for Illinois on Saturday, but if Illinois can take advantage of its size and control the boards, that could be a hidden key for it to advance.
With two-time national champion Dan Hurley on the sidelines, UConn already has an advantage before the ball is even tipped. Like Illinois, the Huskies needed a second-half rally to take down top-seed Duke in the Elite Eight, but they enter their third Final Four in four seasons with all eyes on another title.
Senior center Tarris Reed Jr., who had 27 rebounds in the first-round win over Furman, could be the difference-maker for UConn, especially against the length of Illinois.
Regardless of who comes out on top between Illinois and UConn, the nightcap between one-seeds Michigan and Arizona most likely features the eventual national champion.
The Wolverines enter as the favorites to win it all (+140, per FanDuel) and have won each of their NCAA Tournament games by an average of 22.5 points. They have also scored at least 90 points in every game and have rode the hot hand of senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg, who has scored 23 or more points and shot 52.6% or better in three of the four tournament games.
Arizona, meanwhile, just extended its HC Tommy Lloyd and is as balanced as any team in the country and has two elite freshmen in Brayden Burries and Koa Peat. It does not attempt many threes, so using its size and getting to the charity stripe will be critical against Michigan.
Arizona and Michigan are the favorites, but all four teams are deserving of competing for a national title. The close spreads certainly prove that.
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