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True or false? Separating fact from fiction in NBA second round
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James drives against the Houston Rockets' Alperen Sengun in a first-round game. Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

True or false? Separating fact from fiction in NBA second round

After a wild first round that featured multiple 3-1 comebacks, an elder statesman (LeBron James) outplaying a team (Houston Rockets) of freaky athletes who weren't even born when he entered the league and a team (Denver) with the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) losing to a team (Minnesota) led by Jalen McDaniels, we've finally arrived in the second round of the NBA playoffs. 

To preview each series, let’s separate fact from fiction and examine what’s real — and what isn’t — as we head into what should be another entertaining couple of weeks.

True or false?  The Thunder are going to wax the Lakers.

TRUE: This would be a helluva series if Luka Doncic were healthy. LeBron James, 41, turned back the clock to beat the Rockets in six games, averaging 23.2 PPG, 8.3 APG and 7.2 RPG. He did a little bit of everything — scoring, orchestrating, defending, hitting clutch threes and even creating a couple of new hilarious GIFs and memes. The role players have been phenomenal: Luke Kennard had 50 points in the first two wins, Marcus Smart looked like prime Marcus Smart and Rui Hachimura shot 58.6 percent from three. The Lakers are playing with house money and a dangerous edge.

However, the Lakers are about to run into a buzz saw in the Thunder. OKC has an even better defense (first in the NBA) than Houston (sixth in the NBA), which held Los Angeles to only 101.2 PPG in the first round. They have a better offense, too, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who will likely be MVP for the second consecutive season. 

And, most importantly of all, Doncic's hamstring has been slow to heal, and all signs point to him missing most, if not all, of the series. Without Doncic, the Lakers simply don't have the shot-creation firepower to score in bunches against OKC's elite defense.

To have a puncher's chance, L.A. must steal one of the first two games in Oklahoma City. Then Doncic would need to return at full strength and seamlessly reintegrate, which seems like a tall order for even one of the game's greats. The Thunder are too deep, too disciplined and too good. | PREDICTION: THUNDER IN FIVE.

True or false? The Spurs will cruise to an easy series victory over the injury-depleted Timberwolves.

FALSE: Don't be so quick to write Minnesota's obituary. Yes, Anthony Edwards is questionable with a bone bruise and hyperextended knee. Plus, Donte DiVincenzo's season is over after a torn Achilles in Game 4 against Denver. And yes, Ayo Dosunmu, who dropped 43 points in that same Game 4, is dealing with a calf issue. On paper, the Timberwolves have no business being competitive against a 62-win Spurs team led by the Defensive Player of the Year in Victor Wembanyama (25 PPG, 11.5 RPG, 3.1 BPG in the regular season).

But these Wolves just eliminated Jokic and the Nuggets in six games while playing their last two without their starting backcourt. McDaniels averaged 17.8 PPG and put the clamps on Denver's Jamal Murray all series. Julius Randle thrives in playoff physicality. Rudy Gobert is playing arguably the best basketball of his life. And the rest of the roster is loaded with nasty two-way players who clearly aren't afraid of the moment. 

The Spurs will still win this series — Wemby, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are the real deal — but if San Antonio is expecting a stroll, they're in for a rude awakening. Expect the Spurs to have to dig deep to earn this one. | PREDICTION: SPURS IN SEVEN

True or false? The Knicks are the Eastern Conference favorite.

TRUE: but the 76ers have a higher ceiling: The Knicks didn't just close out the Hawks in their first-round series — they made a statement that reverberated across the entire conference. Game 6 was a 140-89 obliteration in which New York set an NBA playoff record with a 47-point halftime lead. Suddenly, a team that was on the brink heading into Game 4, down 2-1 to a feisty Hawks team, is now the conference favorite. 

Jalen Brunson (26 PPG, 6.8 APG in the regular season) scored at least 26 points in four of his first five playoff games, including a 39-point masterpiece in Game 5 on 15-of-23 shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns has looked every bit the second star this team needs. OG Anunoby has also played like an All-Star. The Knicks deserve to be favored.

That said, Philly just came back from 3-1 down to the heavily favored Boston Celtics, and is flashing a scary upside. Tyrese Maxey is spectacular. He dropped 30 points in back-to-back games to close the series, including an 11-for-18 masterpiece in Game 7 with 11 rebounds and seven assists. He's the first Sixer since Julius Erving in 1982 to post 30 points, five assists and zero turnovers in a playoff game — and he did it twice. 

Joel Embiid, who missed the first three games recovering from an appendectomy, came back and dominated, putting up 34 points and 12 rebounds in the clincher. Paul George has been the steady third option this roster desperately needed. And then there's V.J. Edgecombe — the rookie out of Baylor dropped 23 points in Game 7. Nick Nurse is a championship-caliber coach who knows how to scheme in a seven-game series. 

If Embiid stays healthy — and that's always the caveat with Philly — this team can beat anyone in the East. | PREDICTION: 76ERS IN SIX

True or false? The Pistons and Cavaliers have put their playoff jitters behind them.

FALSE: One of these teams will win this series and move on to the Eastern Conference Finals, but it'll be fool's gold. Both of these teams are flawed. 

As for the Pistons, let's be clear about one thing: This is not an indictment on Cade Cunningham. He just had a Herculean first round (32.4 PPG, 7.1 APG and 5.7 RPG on 46-40-84 shooting). The man is a superstar at 24.

The problem with the Pistons is they don't have enough spacing for playoff basketball — note their 32.7 percent three-point shooting in the first round. Tobias Harris, Daniss Jenkins and Javonte Green all attempted 20 or more three-pointers against Orlando and all shot below 30 percent. Without adequate spacing, Jalen Duren goes from being an All-NBA center to a low-level starter real quick, and the burden Cunningham must carry as Detroit advances deeper into the postseason will become Sisyphean.

The Cavaliers, though, don't have a single damning statistic, but rather, a lack of the requisite intestinal fortitude necessary to go on a championship run. They have the talent and ability to win the East and compete with the Thunder and Spurs for a title, but when things get difficult, this team falters.

It's ridiculous that they allowed the Raptors to take them to seven games. Championship teams dig deep when the going gets tough. Expect the Cavs to get punched in the mouth and fall apart at some point this round. | PREDICTION: PISTONS IN SIX

Pat Heery

Pat Heery began his sports writing career in 2016 for The Has Been Sports Blog. He practices real estate law during the day and runs pick & rolls at night. Follow him on X: @pheery12

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