Falcons may have favorite in mind for Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr. QB competition

Recently, Atlanta Falcons president of football Matt Ryan revealed that he couldn't yet say where Falcons 2025 Week 1 starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be later this summer in Penix's recovery from surgery he needed this past fall to repair a partially torn ACL.

Thus, one would think it's fair to say that new Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski currently has free-agency signing Tua Tagovailoa penciled in atop the club's depth chart. For an update shared on Monday, NFL insider Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom US indicated that Penix is the underdog in the battle for Atlanta's QB1 job. 

Why Michael Penix Jr. may struggle to leapfrog Tua Tagovailoa on the depth chart

"Several in NFL circles with ties to new head coach Kevin Stefanski believe the team’s immediate pursuit of free-agent quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, as much as other teams did not value him as a starting quarterback, was quite telling and that the move is a means to installing him as starter and giving them time to slow-play Penix’s return and lean into going with a more established quarterback," La Canfora wrote about the Falcons' situation. 

La Canfora noted that Penix is learning a new offense with a new coaching staff while also attempting to be healthy enough to participate in training camp practices. According to La Canfora, the Falcons "will take every precaution" and will not rush Penix back into action before he is 100 percent healthy. 

A 2024 first-round draft pick, Penix won just four of 12 starts across the first two seasons of his pro career. The Falcons may not be ready to give up on him quite yet, but it also sounds like he is on track to enter September as the club's QB2.

Does the Falcons' alleged Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr. competition exist only on paper?

"Penix is going to be limited through the offseason and likely at least somewhat early in the summer, and Tagovailoa has some physical limitations but will absorb this offense quickly and understands how to deliver the ball quickly," La Canfora added. "...Tagovailoa will have every opportunity to get starting reps, and given how little is asked of veterans in the preseason these days, the odds of him peforming poorly enough to leave the door open for Penix are pretty slim, as are the odds of Penix getting sufficient reps in the exhibition games to move up the depth chart. This isn’t going to end up being much of a competition unless Tagovailoa himself gets hurt, in all likelihood, which has been a significant subplot to his career to this point."

Tagovailoa's well-known injury history suggests he will struggle to remain healthy through an entire season as a full-time starter. Additionally, he was benched by the Miami Dolphins late in the 2025 campaign due to poor play. 

That said, it seems like the Falcons' starting job will be Tagovailoa's to lose once training-camp practices get underway.