Why Cardinals' Michael McGreevy is the luckiest pitcher in MLB this season

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy. Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Why Cardinals' Michael McGreevy is the luckiest pitcher in MLB this season

By Vanessa Serrao | Last updated May 14, 2026 8:38 PM ET

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has earned the title of the "luckiest pitcher" in MLB as a result of his ERA and WHIP that don't correlate with his underlying performance metrics.

While McGreevy may lack high-velocity stuff, he's still putting up solid performances as a reliable starter in the rotation.

But rest assured, he's leaned on his teammates for support, and it's paid off well. He holds a strong 2.10 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, which are exceeding his expected ERA (xERA) of 5.05.

This measures how a pitcher's performance should be based on quality of contact. It means that opponents are hitting the ball hard but not getting the desired outcome of extra-base hits.

Your luckiest pitcher of the 2026 season (by a mile): Michael McGreevy

ERA: 2.18
SIERA: 3.96
xFIP: 3.68
FIP: 3.75

wOBA allowed: .241
xwOBA allowed: .349

BA allowed: .184
xBA allowed: .272 pic.twitter.com/H4IdrNJR5k
— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) May 14, 2026

Unpacking the luck of Michael McGreevy

McGreevy's xERA is practically double his ERA, meaning that he is giving up hard contact that should produce a high ERA, but oddly enough, it doesn't. In the Cardinals' 5-4 victory on Thursday, he gave up 11 hard-hit batted balls. This included six over 100 mph, and only one produced a hit.

It's not uncommon for batters to reach high velocities with batted balls and not generate a hit. But for McGreevy, he's got a heightened advantage compared to other pitchers. This is also because of his solid command and groundball rate of 44.7%.

In McGreevy's case, the luck is happening because he has an elite defense behind him and boasts a walk rate in the 86th percentile.

JJ Wetherholt is one high-impact defender behind McGreevy who deserves an honorable mention for his leap diving catches. As well, McGreevy sequences his pitches effectively with a seven-pitch arsenal.

Despite a high 36.8% hard-hit rate, McGreevy has compiled a low batting average against (.184), which indicates that hitters are hitting the ball right at the Cardinals defense.

Vanessa Serrao

Serrao is a freelance baseball writer who has covered all MLB teams, with particular expertise on the Toronto Blue Jays. She is a member of the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America.

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