
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to kick off on Thursday in Mexico City, Mexico. Forty-eight teams from nations as diverse as Uzbekistan and Curacao will compete for the enviable title of soccer's world champion.
The tournament will begin by pitting the qualified nations against their peers in twelve groups of four teams apiece. Each group will play its fellow members once, earning three points for a win, one point each for a draw and zero points for a loss. The top two teams in each group after three games will advance to the knockout rounds; the eight third-placed teams with the strongest records will join them.
We're breaking down each group's landscape and chances: we kicked things off with Mexico's Group A, Canada's Group B and Brazil's Group C. Here's how the USMNT's Group D, Germany's Group E and the Netherlands's Group F might shake out:
When the United States Men's National Team drew these three opponents last December, the overwhelming reaction was one of relief. For one thing, all of the opponents were familiar—the USMNT beat Paraguay 2-1 in November 2025, beat Australia 2-1 in October 2025 and lost to Turkiye 1-2 in June 2025—and for another, none of them were big-name international draws. The USMNT could've wound up in a group with the likes of Morocco, Croatia, Norway and Cote D'Ivoire; it got these three nations instead.
Yeah...about that. While it's true that Paraguay, Australia and Turkiye weren't the most dangerous teams in their respective pots, it's important to remember that the USMNT wasn't either—it shared a pot with the likes of Argentina, France and Spain. Pretty much every team in Group D was thrilled with the draw it received, and that can only mean one thing: this is one of the most balanced, competitive groups in the entire tournament. There are no standouts or stragglers here.
All that parity should make for a fascinating competition. The USMNT is the highest-ranked team and will have the benefit of home-field advantage; it will also kick its tournament off against Paraguay and Australia, the two teams it beat last fall. By the time it gets to Turkiye—its most difficult opponent by far—it may not need a win to confirm its spot in the knockout rounds.
Turkiye is a strong challenger, though. Its twin attackers, Juventus's Kenan Yildiz and Real Madrid's Arda Guler, bring complementary skillsets to the table: Yildiz is tall and aggressive while Guler is lithe and tricky. It's capable of challenging anyone—it held tournament favorite Spain to a draw recently—but it struggles with consistency under the spotlight. It's entered big tournaments as a dark horse before and flamed out in the opening round.
Paraguay and Australia, meanwhile, are big-hearted, good-time outfits with a lot more guile than most opponents give them credit for. They're absolutely capable of snatching points off the USMNT and Turkiye...but the parity of this group means that its third-placed team is unlikely to steal enough points to qualify for the knockout rounds.
Predicted to Advance: USA, Turkiye
Germany is the big name in this group, and for good reason: it's a four-time World Cup winner, and it's improved massively under the guidance of coach Julian Nagelsmann. It is, however, coming in hot off two straight World Cup group stage exits—its recent tournament form has left plenty to be desired.
That leaves space for Ecuador to sneak in as the unlikely champion of this group. It's one of South America's finest teams, and it got there by being really, really annoying to play against. Seriously: this Ecuador defense, led by Paris Saint-Germain's Willian Pacho and Club Brugge's Joel Ordoñez, is one of the strongest and most physical in the world. It's on a 19-game unbeaten streak and looks set to be one of the World Cup's dark horses.
Cote D'Ivoire, meanwhile, brings the opposite strength: its attack is known around the world for its speed and precision. RB Leipzig's Yan Diomande, still just 19 years old, is poised to become one of the World Cup's breakout stars.
Predicted to Advance: Ecuador, Germany, Cote D'Ivoire
On paper, this group resembles Group A quite a bit: it's got two clear standouts and two clear stragglers.
The standouts, of course, are the Netherlands and Japan. For the Netherlands, the big question is whether its veritable slew of attackers—Liverpool's Cody Gakpo, Sunderlands' Brian Brobbey, Galatasaray's Noa Lang, AS Roma's Donyell Malen and Ajax's Wout Weghorst, to name but a few—are firing on all cylinders. When this crew is on, its close to unbeatable, but these players are hardly ever all on at the same time.
Japan, though, is known for its consistency, and it could wind up being a sleeper his at this World Cup. It's missing Brighton midfielder Kaoru Mitoma through injury, but it's got a whole host of players who ply their trade in the Dutch Eredivisie—Ajax's Ko Itakura and Takehiro Tomiyasu, Feyenoord's Ayase Ueda and Tsuyoshi Watanabe and NEC's Koki Ogawa—who will be thrilled to show up their Dutch counterparts.
Between Sweden and Tunisia, it's Tunisia that feels the most capable of pulling off an upset. Sweden has strong World Cup pedigree but it's one of the weakest teams in this tournament and isn't likely to make a dent in it.
Predicted to Advance: Japan, Netherlands
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